There Is No Schlieffen in the German Empire

50 – The Time for Decision

January 19, 1915. Vladimir Palace, the capital of the Russian Empire, Petrograd.

The rumors of Romania’s imminent declaration of war spread quickly among the social circles of Petrograd. It was needless to say that if the enemy were to join the war, the already disadvantaged empire would face even greater difficulties. Now, the leaders of Petrograd had to think about the aftermath of Russia’s defeat.

‘Even if we lose the war, Germany will not overthrow the current Tsarist regime.’

Germany had no desire to replace the current monarchy with a more hostile republic or socialist government.

However, it was hard to be optimistic that the current regime would continue as it is, even if the Germans were to preserve the Tsarist regime. Just ten years ago, the Empire had been filled with an atmosphere similar to the French Revolution due to the humiliating defeat in the Russo-Japanese War. The people were not foolish enough to remain silent even after experiencing a level of disgrace far worse than that.

In the end, in order to appease the anger of the Empire’s citizens, the hardliners who decided on the war and the “Tsar” had no choice but to take responsibility. Even in the Romanov dynasty, there was enough possibility to consider the abdication of the unpopular Tsar Nicholas II in order to protect the family’s throne.

If Tsar Nicholas were to abdicate, who would be the next in line for the throne?

The social elites could not help but pay attention to this matter.

One thing was certain: it would be difficult for Crown Prince Alexei, who was at the top of the line of succession, to inherit the throne. Considering the current public opinion on Tsar Nicholas II and Tsarina Alexandra, which was extremely unfavorable, it was inevitable that their successors would have a negative attitude towards ascending the throne. Above all, the Crown Prince was too young.

The person who first sensed this delicate atmosphere was Grand Duchess Maria Pavlovna. As the Grand Mistress of Petrograd’s social circles, she warmly welcomed any discussions about the post-war period. Even so, Maria had always believed that her own sons should sit on the throne instead of the “incompetent and unqualified” Nicholas.

Maria decided to actively seize this opportunity.

But in order to do so, she needed to align her sons’ thoughts with hers.

In response to the Grand Duchess’s summons, Grand Dukes Kirill and Boris Vladimirovich hurriedly arrived at Vladimir Palace. They thought their mother wouldn’t have called them for no reason, but they couldn’t help but be surprised by the story she brought up.

“Are we aiming for the throne after the war?”

Kirill also had ambitions for the throne, but he was taken aback when his mother, who had no military foundation, mentioned the throne. Grand Duchess Maria smiled at her sons and shared her thoughts.

“Don’t you know what the atmosphere in Petrograd is like right now? If the war ends in defeat, the current Tsar will have a hard time keeping the throne.”

The Grand Dukes didn’t deny that fact. After all, the war during the Russo-Japanese War had taken place in Manchuria, which was not even part of the Empire’s territory, and they hadn’t even paid any indemnities. That’s why they were able to suppress the revolution and maintain their regime.

But this war was different.

Not only did the core regions of the Empire, such as the Baltic region, Poland, and Belarus, become battlegrounds, but the scale of the damage was also incomparable to previous conflicts. Above all, this war was a fight that the hardliners in Char had chosen for themselves. That meant that the political burden that the Char regime had to bear was inevitably heavy.

“Mother, even if that’s the case, won’t Char’s brothers succeed to the throne? This is an impossible task.”

Boris had no interest in this kind of political struggle. He was satisfied with his current life of extravagant parties, good food, and enjoying women.

And by openly opposing Char like this, he couldn’t even attempt the marriage he secretly hoped for with Olga Nikolaevna, the Grand Duchess of All Russia. Boris was captivated by the flower of society, just twenty years old, and didn’t even notice anything else.

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“This is a fight with a chance of success.”

Maria, the Grand Duchess, asserted.

“How can you be so sure?”

“People may dislike Charina, but they are envious because they cannot attend my parties. At a time like this, the reputation of the social elite is more valuable than anything else. I hold that in my hands.”

As Maria, the Grand Duchess, said, the reputation of the nobility in society was never to be underestimated. Royals with a bad reputation were isolated, plagued by rumors, and unable to do anything.

“What does that have to do with Char’s brothers?”

“Under normal circumstances, it may not matter much, but in times of crisis, their right to the throne is not so important. If people come to believe that our family should be on the throne, what does their priority matter?”

“……!”

The nobles who felt disgust towards the palace factions surrounding Charina Alexandra looked upon Char’s visit to the frontlines and the surrounding aristocrats who strongly supported him with unfavorable eyes. Maria was gradually gaining support from them by opposing Charina and creating a divide.

“However, there are limits to the power I can exert. That’s why I need your help.”

Boris showed a momentary hesitation at Maria’s words.

On the other hand, Kirill’s gaze changed slightly as he thought that it wouldn’t be bad to take advantage of the opportunity his mother had prepared.

Kirill asked, “What kind of help do you want from us?”

“The support of the military leaders. We need to have at least some military power in our hands. That way, even in the worst case scenario, we can have some options, don’t you think?”

Kirill didn’t think Maria, the Grand Duchess’s judgment, was all that bad. If she had completely disregarded the military, she wouldn’t have agreed with her mother’s plan.

“What do you think we should do about Andrey, who is on the front lines?”

When Andrey, the Grand Duke, returns to Petrograd from the northwestern front, the power that the brothers can exert in the military will be much greater. When Kirill pointed this out, Maria, the Grand Duchess, smiled and replied.

“I asked Grand Duke Nikolai to change his position in the Guards by using the excuse of arranging a good marriage. He won’t ruin his nephew’s marriage, so he’ll agree to transfer him to a good position like Boris.”

“It will certainly be helpful when Andrey returns to Petrograd.”

When Kirill showed a positive meaning, Boris looked incredulous.

“Brother, even if all of our brothers work in the Guards, it would be lucky if we could move one division. What else can we do with that?”

“That should be enough.”

Kirill said.

Boris, who had no interest in power, didn’t understand, but Kirill understood everything that their mother had painted. It didn’t matter if Maria, the Grand Duchess, had an ‘appropriate level’ of influence over the military that she desired.

When the war ends and everyone tries to pull the Tsar down, how many people in the capital will be able to exert real military power? Among them, the nobility will be particularly hostile.

And if that person is backed by reputation and influence, it will be even more hostile. That special position will be the legitimacy for the throne.

Maria, the Grand Duchess, was satisfied that her son understood her thoughts.

“Yes. That should be enough. I can create the opportunity.”

“Mother, must our family take such a dangerous gamble over the throne? We could even lose what we have now if we make a mistake.”

“Boris!”

As Maria, the Grand Duchess’s voice grew louder, Boris, the Grand Duke, swallowed his saliva.

“The throne should have originally been given to your father, not to the incompetent Alexander III or Nicholas II. We are only trying to regain the rights our family has lost. Do you understand?”

“……”

“Don’t forget the humiliation your brother has tasted.”

Boris nodded slightly.

“And, Kirill.”

“Yes.”

“I have decided to forget the fact that you disappointed this mother in the last engagement.”

“……”

“If you become a czar, who would dare say anything about a minor flaw? So, for the sake of your father’s honor, you must do your best in this matter. Do you understand?”

“I understand.”

The Grand Duchess Maria gathered her sons’ hands and held them tightly with both hands.

*

December 20, 1914, Berlin, the capital of the German Empire.

“At 6 a.m., the Kingdom of Romania declared war on Petrograd. At the exact same time, Romanian troops and allied forces crossed the Bessarabian border.”

The chief of staff pointed to the symbols marked on the map as he explained.

Thanks to Romania’s participation in the war, the front line that Russia had to bear had increased by nearly a thousand kilometers. Even so, it was a burden for Russia, where troops and supplies were scarce.

At that moment, an aide entered and reported that a telegram had arrived from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

“Your Majesty, a telegram has arrived from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. It is classified as top secret.”

“Bring it to me.”

I took the telegram that the aide brought while still looking at the map. As I briefly scanned the contents, a bitter smile formed on my face.

“I thought the British would not interfere, but they are moving in this way.”

Today, Britain had passed the “Safe Passage Bill,” guaranteeing freedom of navigation in the Mediterranean.

It was highly likely that the recent sale of Russian bonds reported by the US ambassador in New York was part of this support.

“If we continue to receive an influx of British and American capital and ammunition, we might witness Russia, which was on the brink of death, receiving a blood transfusion and coming back to life.”

Even if things were to go on like this, it would be difficult for Russia to withstand the impact if the planned offensive were to sweep through the Baltic states, Belarus, and Ukraine.

But it was frustrating to think that we would still have to suffer unnecessary losses.

Handing over the documents to my aide, I said, “Let’s cancel the operational meeting at this point.”

The officers bowed politely.

Accepting their respect, I left the conference room and headed to my office.

The office, which had been tidied up in advance by my aide, was in a clean state.

As soon as I sat down, I picked up the telephone.

An hour later, Professor Oppenheim, the head of the Eastern Intelligence Bureau, entered my room.

After listening to my story, he had a slightly serious expression on his face.

“As Your Majesty feared, we cannot simply ignore the fact that Petrograd is receiving support from the British and Americans. After all, they might be able to mobilize the Far Eastern mercenaries they have hired.”

“That is exactly what I am concerned about.”

“But we also have no means to use unless we decide to go to war.”

In fact, if Russia could be prevented from selling bonds in New York, it would reduce the variables. Even if there were ports and railways ready to import supplies, it would be useless if there was no money to buy them.

Oppenheim pointed out the obstacle that I would have to overcome.

“To do as Your Majesty suggests, we must first undermine Russia’s credit.”

The Russian Empire, though poor, had a considerable level of credit as the world’s top power when it came to the Romanov dynasty alone.

I had already thought about that.

“If we can create an impression that Russia will collapse as early as tomorrow, then it will be easy to shatter their credit. What if we spread the fear that a ‘revolution’ will happen in Petrograd soon?”

The Western society had once experienced the reign of socialists. The unfinished Paris Commune was a prime example. The Paris Commune made even the capitalists, who were not fond of monarchies, think that it was better to maintain the status quo than to experience a socialist state again.

And Russia was a country that was on the verge of a “revolution” in 1905. If the war ended in defeat in such an unstable situation, wouldn’t the empire be turned upside down?

“If there is an impression that the debt collection will not be guaranteed, the possibility of failure in selling the bonds will increase. However, in order to successfully carry out this task, we will need to mobilize resources at the diplomatic level.”

“It seems like the opportunity cost is quite high. But it doesn’t matter. There is nothing more beneficial to us than preventing the enemy from quenching their thirst at the most critical moment.”

“In that case, I will also reach out to the Jewish community.”

There was a reason why Ofenheim mentioned the Jewish community.

Until just a few years ago, the Russian Empire had been making Jewish people feel strong hatred through a fiercely anti-Semitic policy represented by the Pogrom. In return, the Jewish people showed their resentment towards Russia by buying up Japanese bonds during the Russo-Japanese War.

France, Russia’s ally, was also not well-regarded by Jewish people due to incidents like the Dreyfus Affair, which strongly expressed anti-Semitic views.

Compared to this, Germany and Austria were not overly tolerant towards Jews. It may seem ironic considering the Weimar Republic or the Nazi era, which was rampant with anti-Semitic sentiments.

Because of this background, the Jewish community in the United States had a favorable view towards Germany. They also relied to a significant extent on the credit provided by these Jewish financiers for the funds needed for Germany’s war efforts.

Of course, it could be considered a favor that they did not threaten the transatlantic trade that was vital to their interests.

“While the Jewish people may dislike Petrograd, they won’t easily give up on something that is detrimental to their interests, will they?”

“If we compensate them by entrusting them with the sale of our imperial bonds, as much as they suffer losses, then the discussion is possible.”

There was no need to mention which of the Russian bonds, which would become worthless in case of defeat, and the German bonds, which would increase in value as they became the victorious nation, would sell better.

Above all, there was a low possibility that Jewish capitalists would reject the proposal, considering the need to maintain a friendly relationship with the German Empire, which would hold the future hegemony of Europe.

In this context, Ofenheim’s words were persuasive.

After discussing with Ofenheim about the details, I finalized the plan to secure funds from Russia.

After Professor Ofenheim left, I sat in my chair and stared at the map of Russia, lost in thought.

It was time to make an important decision.