Harry Potter and the Way of Reason

Chapter 8 Confirmation Bias [1]

All of these worlds belong to J.K. Rowling, except Europa.You can't have friends there. [2]

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A wary reader asked me, if Luna is really a prophet, does it mean that this novel will evolve into a slam novel about Harry and Draco?I regret that FFN (Annotation: fanfiction.net, fiction fan website) does not have a larger font, let me emphasize the three words impossible.I really didn't think of the possibility of Luna being a seer before - I'll have to think about whether to set it up like that - but I think we can all safely assume that even if Luna was a seer and she said "light in the dark A seed was planted in ", and Xenophilius, as usual, got the meaning of the prophecy completely wrong.

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"Allow me to warn you that questioning my wisdom is dangerous and will make your life impossible."

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No one came to ask her for help, and that was the problem.Some of them were talking, some were eating, and some were watching while their parents were chatting.For some reason, no one sat down to read, which meant she couldn't sit down with them and open her own.Even when she bravely sat down first and went on to read Hogwarts: A History for the third time, no one thought to sit down next to her.

She really doesn't know how to get to know people other than helping with homework, or providing all kinds of help.She doesn't consider herself a shy person.She sees herself as the kind of girl who takes the initiative and takes charge.But, for some reason, it's really awkward to strike up a conversation without someone saying to her "I forgot how to do long division" or something.You walk up to someone and say... say what?She couldn't figure it out.And there is no standard answer, which is simply ridiculous.She had always felt that it was irrational to meet someone else.It's obviously a matter between two people, why should she be responsible for it all?Why don't adults help?She wished some other girl would come up to her and say, "Hermione, the teacher asked me to be your friend."

However, it must be noted that Hermione Granger sat alone in one of the few empty compartments on the first day of school, in the last car of the train, with the door open on purpose, just in case someone When she wanted to talk to her for some reason, she didn't feel sad, lonely, down, sad, disappointed, or overwhelmed with the issue.She was only reading "Hogwarts: A History" for the third time, fascinated, only subconsciously annoyed at the general irrationality of the world.

There was the sound of doors opening between the cars outside, and then there were footsteps and a strange sliding sound in the passage.Hermione put down "Hogwarts: A School History", stood up and stuck her head out - to see if anyone needed help - and she saw a little boy in wizard's robes, probably a first year or two by his height. Grade student with a scarf on his head looking silly.He has a small suitcase by his side.When she stuck her head out, he was knocking on the door of a closed cubicle and asked in a voice muffled by a scarf, "Excuse me, may I ask a question?"

She didn't hear the answer from the compartment, but when the boy opened the door, she heard him ask - unless she misheard - "Is there anyone here who knows the name of the six quarks, or where to find a Hermione Granger?" Is it a first-grade girl?"

As the boy closed the compartment door again, Hermione asked, "Can I help you?"

Turning to look at her with his face covered in his scarf, he said, "No, unless you know the name of the six quarks, or tell me where to find Hermione Granger."

"Up, down, strange, charming, true, beautiful, what do you want from Hermione Granger?"

(Note: now the general is top and bottom...)

It was hard to tell from that distance, but she thought she saw the boy with a big smile behind his scarf. "Ah, so you are a first-year girl named Hermione Granger," said the young voice muffled by the scarf. "And also on the Hogwarts train." The boy made his way to her and her compartment, his suitcase following. "Strictly speaking, I just need to find you, but I feel like I still need to talk to you, or invite you to my party, or get a key magic item from you, or discover the original Hogwarts It was built on the ruins of an ancient temple or something. The question is, are you a player or a system character?"

Hermione opened her mouth to answer, but she couldn't think of a response to...the words she had just heard.At this time, the boy had already walked in front of her, looked into the cubicle, nodded with satisfaction, and sat on the bench opposite her.His box climbed in, tripled in size, and dropped down next to hers with an uncomfortable feeling.

"Sit down, please," the boy said, "and close the door if you don't mind. Don't worry, I won't bite unless someone bites me first." He took the scarf off his head as he spoke.

The boy actually thought she was afraid of him, and the insult caused her to slam the door so hard that it slammed against the wall.She turned quickly and saw a young face with bright green eyes full of laughter and a sharp dark red scar on his forehead.This made her seem to think of something, but she had more important things to think about. "I didn't say I was Hermione Granger!"

"I didn't say you said you were Hermione Granger, I said you were Hermione Granger. If you want to ask me how I know, it's because I know everything. Ladies and gentlemen Good evening folks, my name is Harry James Potter Evans-Verys, or Harry Potter for short, and I know it probably doesn't mean much to you—"

Hermione finally remembered.The scar on the forehead, the shape of lightning. "Harry Potter! You are mentioned in "Modern Wizarding History", "The Rise and Fall of Dark Magic" and "Major Wizarding Events of the Twentieth Century." This was the first time she met the character in the book. Man, it feels weird.

The boy blinked three times. "I was mentioned in the book? Yes, of course I will be mentioned in the book... Weird idea."

"My God, don't you know that?" Hermione said. "If it were me, I would definitely check all the information I could find."

The boy's tone was very cold. "Miss Granger, it's been less than 72 hours since I went to Diagon Alley and found out that I'm a celebrity. I've spent the previous two days buying science books. Please believe me, I'm really going to put what I can find Check all the information." He hesitated. "What does the book say about me?"

Hermione thought about it, she didn't expect anyone to test the contents of these books, so she only read them once, but fortunately it was only a month ago, so she still remembered it clearly. "You were the only one who survived the death spell, so you were called 'The Boy Who Lived'. You were born on July 1980, 31, to parents James Potter and Lily Potter , her maiden name was Lily Evans. On October 31, [-], the Dark Lord, aka 'The Man Who Can't Be Named', attacked your home, although I don't know why he couldn't be mentioned Name. Then they found you alive in the ruins of your parents' house, just with an extra scar on your forehead, next to the charred body of 'the man'. Chief Wizard Albus Percival Woolf Rick Bryan Dumbledore sent you away, and no one knows where. "The Rise and Fall of the Dark Arts" thinks that you survived because of your mother's love for you, and there are scars in your scars All the dark lord's powers, and the centaurs are terrified of you, but Great Wizarding Events of the Twentieth Century doesn't mention that, and Modern Wizarding History warns that much of what you conjecture about you is nonsense."

The boy's mouth fell open. "Did someone tell you that Harry Potter was waiting on the Hogwarts train, or something like that?"

"No," said Hermione. "Who told you to come to me?"

"It's Professor McGonagall, and I think I know why. Hermione, do you have a photographic memory?"

Hermione shook her head. "It's not photographic, I've always hoped it was, but when I read the textbook, I have to read it five times to remember it all."

"Really," said the boy in a somewhat stifled voice. "I hope you don't mind me testing it - it's not that I don't believe you, but as the saying goes, 'Trust, but prove'. Leave nothing in doubt about what can be experimentally proven."

Hermione smiled smugly.She loves exams. "bring it on."

The boy reached into a bag beside him and said, "Magic Potions and Potions, by Arseny Giger".When he took his hand out of the bag, the book he mentioned just now was in his hand.

The bag immediately became Hermione's most desired possession.

The boy turned the book to the middle page, bowed his head and began to read. "If you're making agility oil—"

"I can see what's on that page from here!"

The boy turned the book up so that she could not see its contents, and turned a few more pages. "If you're making a potion for people to climb like a spider, what do you put in after the acromander silk?"

"After you put the silk in, wait for the potion to change to cloudless morning, eight degrees above the horizon, the color of the sky eight minutes before the sun rises. Stir eight times counterclockwise and once clockwise, then add eight grams of solitary Horned beast booger."

The boy closed the book hard and put it back in the bag, which burped softly and ate the book. "Very strong very strong. I have a proposal, Miss Granger."

"Proposal?" Hermione asked suspiciously.Girls shouldn't listen to these words. (Annotation: Proposition is ambiguous in English, and also has the meaning of non-requirement.)

It was also at this time that Hermione became aware of another oddity about the boy - well, one of various oddities.Apparently the people in the book also talk like a book.This discovery is quite surprising.

The boy reached into the bag and said, "A can of drink," and pulled out a bright green can.He handed her the jug and said, "May I buy you something?"

Hermione accepted the can of soda politely.In fact, she was indeed a little thirsty. "Thank you," said Hermione, opening her drink. "Is that what you proposed?"

The boy coughed. "No," he said.As Hermione started drinking, he said, "I want you to help me run this universe."

Hermione took a sip of her drink and put down the jar. "No, thank you, I'm not a bad person."

The boy looked at her in surprise, as if he had expected something else. "Oh, I'm just using an analogy," he said. "I mean the aspect of scientific research, not political power. The 'make all possible things happen' kind.[3] I want to experiment with spells, explore the rules, and bring magic into the realm of science Go, merge the worlds of wizards and Muggles, improve the standard of living across the planet, leapfrog human development by hundreds of years, discover the secret of immortality, enter the solar system, explore the galaxy, and most importantly, understand how it all happened , because everything that spells can do is brazenly unimaginable."

This sounds a bit interesting. "Then what?"

The boy stared at her in disbelief. "Then? Isn't that enough?"

"And what do you want me to do?" Hermione asked.

"Of course I want to ask you to help me with my scientific research. With your encyclopedic memory, coupled with my intelligence and rationality, we can finish our research project in no time. I said 'immediately' means at least 35 years."

Hermione was starting to find the boy annoying. "I haven't seen you do anything clever. Maybe I can get you to do my research."

There was a moment of silence in the compartment.

"In other words, you're asking me to prove my intelligence," the boy said after a long pause.

Hermione nodded.

"Allow me to warn you that questioning my wisdom is dangerous and will make your life impossible."

"Didn't see it," said Hermione.She unconsciously raised the green drink to her lips again.

"Well, maybe this will show you," the boy said.He leaned forward, staring at her intently. "I've done some experiments and found that I don't need a wand. I can do anything I want with a snap of my fingers."

Hermione was swallowing her drink when she choked and coughed, spraying bright green liquid from her mouth.

Spilled on her brand new witch robes, which she wore for the first time today, on her first day of school.

Hermione screamed.The sound sounded as harsh as an air raid siren in the closed compartment. "Ah! My clothes!"

"Don't panic!" said the boy. "I'll help you out. Watch!" He raised a hand and snapped his fingers.

"You—" She looked down at herself.

The green liquid was still there, but it began to fade and disappear before her eyes. After a while, her clothes were clean, as if no drink had ever been spilled on them.

Hermione stared at the boy, who smiled smugly.

Silent wandless magic!At his age?And he only got the textbook three days ago?

Then she remembered what the book said, and couldn't help but gasped and flinched back.All the magic of the Dark Lord!In his scars!

She stood up hastily. "I, I, I'm going to the toilet, you wait here for a while—" She had to find an adult right away and tell them—

The boy's smile disappeared. "It's just a gimmick, Hermione. Sorry, I didn't mean to scare you."

Her hand stopped on the doorknob. "Trick?"

"Yes," said the boy. "You wanted me to prove my intelligence. So I did something that seemed impossible on the surface because it was a good way to show off. I can't really do anything with a snap of my fingers." The boy paused for a moment. "At least I don't think I can, I really haven't tried." The boy raised his hand and snapped his fingers again. "No, there are no bananas."

Hermione had never felt so confused in her life.

Seeing the expression on her face, the boy smiled again. "I did warn you that questioning my intelligence would make your life unbelievable. Next time I warn you about something, take it seriously."

"But, but," Hermione stammered. "Then what did you do?"

There was a measuring and calculating expression in the boy's eyes, which she had never seen in other children of her age. "You think you can be an independent scientist with or without my help, don't you? Let's see how you investigate this puzzling phenomenon."

"I..." Hermione's mind went blank for a while.She loves exams, but she has never experienced such an exam.She struggled to remember what scientists would do in the books she had read.The gears of her mind slipped and snapped back into place, returning to the following steps for a scientific investigation project:

Step [-]: Come up with a hypothesis.

Step Two: Do ​​an experiment to test your hypothesis.

Step Three: Measure the Results.

Step [-]: Use cardboard to make a poster of the experimental results.

The first step is to formulate a hypothesis.That said, try to think about what might have just happened. "Okay. My hypothesis is that you cast a spell on my robe that will make anything that gets on it disappear."

"Well," said the boy, "is that your answer?"

The initial shock passed, and Hermione's mind began to function normally. "Wait a minute, that's impossible. I don't see you touching your wand or saying a spell, how can you possibly cast a spell?"

The boy waited, his expression noncommittal.

"But maybe the robes sold in the store are blessed with cleanliness spells, and it is quite useful to bless the robes with this spell. You know, because you have soiled your robes before."

Now the boy's eyebrows are raised. "Is that your answer?"

"No, I haven't done the second step, 'Do an experiment to test your hypothesis.'"

The boy closed his mouth again and began to smile.

Hermione looked at her drink can, which she'd just dropped off where the glass stood by the window.She picked it up and looked inside, there was still a third of it.

"Well," said Hermione, "what I'd like to do as an experiment is to pour a little drink on my robe and see what happens, and my prediction is that the stain will go away. But if I get it wrong, it will. Dirty my robe, I don't want that."

"Pour it over my robe," said the boy, "so you don't have to worry about staining yours."

"But—" said Hermione.This kind of thinking seems not very good, but she didn't know what to say.

"I have spare robes in my trunk," said the boy.

"But you have no place to change it," Hermione objected.Then she thought of a way, "But I think I can go away for a while and close the door—"

"I also have a place to change in the suitcase."

Hermione looked at his suitcase, and she began to suspect that his suitcase was also more special than hers.

"Okay," said Hermione, "since you've said so," carefully pouring a little of the green drink onto the boy's shirt.Then she stared at the stain, trying to remember how long it had been since her last drink had gone away...

The green stains are gone!

Hermione was relieved that she wouldn't have to face all of the Dark Lord's powers anyway.

Next, the third step is to measure the results, although seeing the stain disappear is considered done in this case.And she figured she could skip step four, the cardboard poster part. "My answer is that there are spells on the robe to keep itself clean."

"No," said the boy.

Hermione felt a pang of disappointment.She wished so badly she didn't feel that way, the boy wasn't a teacher, but it was still a test and she got a question wrong and it always felt like a punch in the stomach.

(But she never let this feeling hold her back, never even let it affect her love of the exam, which pretty much sums up everything you need to know about Hermione Granger.)

"The sad part is," said the boy, "that you probably did everything the book told you to do. You made a prediction to tell the difference between a robe that was enchanted and one that wasn't, and then did An experiment, based on the results of the experiment, ruled out the hypothesis that the robes were not enchanted. But unless you read the best books, they will not teach you the correct scientific method. Their method can be used to write A paper where Dad keeps complaining, but can't really find the right answer. So let me explain - without giving away the answer - where you did wrong this time, and then I'll give you another chance .”

She began to resent the condescending tone of the boy, who, like her, was only an 11-year-old.But in comparison, it is more important to figure out what she did wrong. "All right."

The boy's expression became focused. "There is a game called 2-4-6 Quest, which is based on a famous experiment. It is played like this: I have a rule—I know this rule, but you don't—some sequence of three numbers conforms to this The rules, some don't. 2-4-6 is a regular sequence. Actually... let me write this rule down and fold it up for you so you know it doesn't change. Please don't Look, because from the situation just now, I deduce that you can read books backwards."

The boy asked for "paper" and "mechanical pencil" in his bag, and she squeezed her eyes shut as he wrote down the rules.

"There," said the boy, handing her a carefully folded piece of paper. "Put it in your pocket," she did.

"Well, here's how it works," said the boy, "you tell me a sequence of three numbers, and if it fits the rules, I'll say 'yes', and if it doesn't, I'll say 'no'. It's as if I were Nature, this rule is a natural law of mine, and you are studying me. What you currently know is that 2-4-6 is a regular sequence. When you have done all the experiments - ask me how much A series of numbers will do - you stop, guess what the rule is, and then open the paper to see if you got it right. Do you understand?"

"Of course I understand," said Hermione.

"start."

"4-6-8" said Hermione.

"Yes," said the boy.

"10-12-14," said Hermione.

"Yes," said the boy.

Hermione tried to think a little more, because she seemed to have done all the necessary tests, but it couldn't be that simple, could it? "1-3-5."

"Yes."

"-3, -1, 1."

"Yes."

Hermione couldn't think of anything else to do. "The rule is that each number in the sequence must be 2 greater than the previous one."

"Now suppose I tell you," said the boy, "that this test is harder than it looks, and that only 20.00% of adults can get it right."

Hermione frowned.What was she ignoring?Then, suddenly, she thought of a test that needed to be done.

"2-5-8!" she said triumphantly.

"Yes." "10-20-30!"

"Yes."

"The real rule is that each number must be the same amount greater than the previous one. Not necessarily 2."

"Very well," said the boy, "take out the paper and see if you guess right."

Hermione took the paper out of her pocket and opened it.

Three real numbers, arranged from smallest to largest.

Hermione's jaw dropped.She felt strongly that she had been terribly unfairly treated, that the boy was a nasty liar, but when she looked back, she could not recall a single wrong answer he had given.

"The phenomenon you just discovered is called 'confirmation bias,'" the boy explained. "You have a preconceived rule in your mind, and you've been testing the sequences that fit the rule. But you haven't tested the sequences that don't. In fact, you don't get a single 'no' in the answer, so Even if the final rule is 'any three numbers', it would be true. It's like people always design experiments to confirm their hypotheses, rather than disprove their hypotheses - these two kinds of errors are not exactly the same, but very similar to .You have to learn to see the other side of things and learn to face the darkness.Only 20.00% of the adults got the right answer in this experiment.Many other people came up with very complex scenarios and were confident in their wrong answer because they A lot of experiments were done, and every time the answer was the same as expected."

"Now," said the boy, "would you like to try again to solve the previous problem?"

His eyes are now very focused, as if this is the real test.

Hermione closed her eyes, trying to concentrate.She was sweating under her robe.She had a strange feeling that this was the most thought-provoking exam of all her exams, perhaps even the first she had had to think about during an exam.

What other experiments could she do?She has a chocolate frog, does she want to rub a little on it and see if it goes away?But this is still not like the so-called negative way of thinking that the boy said.If the chocolate frog stain disappears, her experiment is still confirming her hypothesis, not disproving it.

So, according to her hypothesis...at what point should the drink not disappear?

"I'm going to do an experiment," said Hermione. "I want to pour some of the drink on the floor and see if it doesn't go away. Do you have any paper towels in the bag so I can wipe the drink off the floor if the experiment doesn't work?"

"I have napkins," the boy said.He still looked noncommittal.

Hermione took the jug and poured a little drink on the floor.

After a few seconds, it disappeared.

Then she suddenly realized that she wanted to kick herself. "Of course! This can of drink was originally given to me by you! It's not the spell on the robe, but the spell on the drink!"

The boy stood up and bowed solemnly to her.There was a big smile on his face. "So...can I help you with your research, Hermione Granger?" "I, um..." Hermione was still basking in the joy of finding the right answer, but she wasn't quite sure how to respond.

They were interrupted by a soft, tentative, quiet, reluctant knock on the door.

The boy turned to look out the window and said, "I'm not wearing a scarf, can you please answer the door?"

Hermione understood now why the boy - no, the 'Boy Who Lived' - had been wearing a scarf around his head, and felt a little silly for thinking about it now.It was actually kind of a surprise, she thought Harry Potter would be proud to show himself; it made her think that maybe he was actually shyer than he looked.

When Hermione opened the door, she saw a shivering little boy who looked exactly like his knocker.

"I'm sorry," the boy whispered, "my name is Neville Longbottom. I was looking for my pet toad, but I can't find it anywhere in this carriage... Have you seen my toad?"

"No," said Hermione, her helpful spirit kicking into full gear. "Have you checked all the other compartments in this car?"

"Yes," the boy whispered.

"Then we'll just have to look at all the other cars," said Hermione briskly. "I'll help you. By the way, my name is Hermione Granger."

The little boy looked like he was going to faint with gratitude.

"Wait a minute," the other boy - Harry Potter - said. "I don't think it's the best way."

Neville looked like she was about to cry, and Hermione turned angrily to Harry.If Harry Potter was the type to leave a little boy alone because he didn't want to be interrupted... "What? Why not?"

"Well," said Harry Potter, "it would take a lot of time to go through the whole train room by room, and it's possible that we still won't find the toad. If you still can't find it, he will be in trouble. So the better way is to let him go directly to the front car, where the prefects of all colleges are there, and ask a prefect to help. That's how I was when I first looked for you Yes, Hermione, but they don't know where you are. But if they're looking for a toad, they might know some spells or have some magic props, which can be found more easily than us. We're only in first grade after all."

This... does make sense.

"Do you think you could go to the prefect's compartment by yourself?" Harry Potter asked. "I have some personal reasons for not wanting to be in the public eye."

Neville gasped suddenly and took a step back. "I remember your voice! You're one of the Lords of Chaos! You're the one who gave me chocolate!"

What?what what what?

Harry Potter turned back from the window and stood up dramatically. "How can I!" he said indignantly. "Do you think I look like the kind of villain who gives candy to children?"

Neville's eyes widened. "You're Harry Potter? That Harry Potter? You?"

"No, I'm just a Harry Potter, there are three of me on this train—"

Neville gave a small scream and ran away.There was a sound of panicked footsteps in the aisle, and then the doors between the cars opened and closed.

Hermione sat back heavily in her chair.Harry Potter closed the door and sat back beside her.

"Can you explain what's going on, please?" Hermione said in a weak voice.She wondered if being around Harry Potter meant that things would always be this way.

"Oh, here it is, Fred, George and I saw this poor little boy at the train station - the woman who brought him had been walking for a while, and he looked terribly frightened, like he was sure there would be as if the Death Eaters were attacking him. And since the saying goes that the fear of a thing is often worse than the thing itself, I figured if he could make his nightmare come true, he'd find it wasn't like he It's going to be good for him to think so dreadfully—"

Hermione sat there with her mouth open.

"—so Fred and George cast a spell that turned the scarves on our faces into a black mist, as if we were the ghosts of kings, and the mist was the shrouds in our graves—"

She didn't like the way this was going at all.

"—we stuffed him with all the candy I bought, and then said, 'Come on, let's give him some money! Hahaha! Here's a few copper knuts for you, little guy! Here's a silver Sickle for you!' And then Dancing next to him, laughing evilly, etc. I think some people tried to stop us at first, but the indifference of the bystanders kept them from acting immediately, and by the time they saw what we were doing, they were completely confused .. at the end he said 'go away' in a very low voice and the three of us ran away screaming and shouting about being burned by the light. Hope he won't be so afraid of being bullied in the future. By the way Say, this is called desensitization therapy."

Well, she didn't guess where this was going.

One of Hermione's main functions, righteous indignation, started to burn, even though a part of her did understand what they were doing. "Too bad! You're horrible! That poor boy! You're so despicable!"

"The right word should be fun, and anyway, you're asking the wrong question. The right question is, is what I'm doing doing more good than bad, or more bad than good? What do you think of the answer, I'd love to hear it, but I'm sorry I can't take any other criticism until then. I certainly agree that what I did looked horrible, bullying, mean, as it involved a terrified little Boys or something, but that's not the point at all, is it? By the way, this is called consequentialism, and it means that whether an action is right or wrong doesn't depend on whether it looks bad, does it Not being mean, wait, the only question is what the end result is - what are the consequences."

Hermione opened her mouth to say something furious, but unfortunately, she forgot to think about what she was going to say before she opened her mouth.In the end, all she could say was, "What if he's having nightmares?"

"Honestly, he's going to have nightmares without our help. If his nightmares turn out to be this, it's a dream of a scary monster giving you chocolate, and that's exactly what we're after."

Every time Hermione tried to express her well-deserved anger, her mind became a mess. "Your life is always

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