Mediterranean hegemon

"Father, have you noticed the current economic and political situation in Germany?"

"Germany?" Old Ciano thought carefully, "It seems that the situation is indeed not ideal and very messy, but I can't comment on the rest. I haven't paid much attention recently..."

"Germany's reparations crisis is deepening. In July, the Albert government reluctantly delivered 2 billion gold marks in reparations, and then requested a reduction in the amount of war reparations and a delay in the payment of reparations after 1922 on the grounds of inflation and fiscal crisis. The United Kingdom started from its Based on the traditional European balance of power policy and economic interests, we are unwilling to overly weaken Germany and strive to reduce Germany's compensation obligations. It is recommended that Germany's total compensation be reduced to 50 billion gold marks and the payment be deferred for four years. France, Belgium and we are opposed to reducing Germany's total compensation. It only agreed to a two-year extension. During this period, Germany was required to bear the costs of the occupation force and submit a 'production collateral', otherwise the Allies would have the right to occupy the Ruhr area."

After being reminded by Contini, the old Ciano suddenly realized that there is indeed a discussion topic on the agenda of today's meeting - whether to be consistent with France and Belgium's position on Germany's claims.

"Due to ongoing disagreements and crises, the exchange rate of the German mark plummeted, falling 45% in just 4 months. It has now reached almost 4,300 marks per US dollar..." Contini's report was particularly solid, and all the above It was a chart of the German mark exchange rate cut out from a newspaper and a newspaper summary of the German crisis of related reports - in Italian, German and English, which showed that the crisis was indeed deepening. Old Ciano looked at it more carefully while reading. He nodded frequently.

"On the surface, this is a problem caused by the reparations dispute between Germany and France. The underlying reason is France's profound insecurity and the contradiction between France and Germany. From the perspective of France, given Germany's industrial base, population size and geographical location, a comeback is a matter of course. It is very easy, so it strongly advocates the weakening or even dismembering of Germany and the permanent elimination of Germany's industrial and military capabilities; and the United Kingdom, based on the traditional continental balance of power, is not willing to overly weaken Germany and allow France to become stronger in Europe; in addition, the United States is not willing to Let Germany collapse, because this will not only cause the European economy to fall into chaos and hinder the sales of American products, but also trigger a possible chain revolution across Europe..."

"So you're saying that because Britain and the United States will intervene, and they are clearly stronger than the French, this crisis will eventually be resolved peacefully?"

"Your judgment is ultimately correct, but I think there is another episode..." Contini emphasized, "The issue of reparations is just an excuse for France. The amount of reparations from Germany cannot solve the problems facing the French economy at all. The most important purpose of the Calais government (French Prime Minister) is to suppress Germany, so I predict that there will be a big event - for example, France and Belgium jointly send troops to occupy the Ruhr area and force Germany to submit. And this kind of clamor has begun to appear in France! , the Belgian media, otherwise the Poincaré government would not have raised the cost of occupying troops this time.”

Old Ciano was shocked: "Will Britain and the United States really sit back and watch this happen?"

"Of course Britain and the United States will not help France suppress Germany, but they will not help Germany send troops to fight against France. The people of Britain and the United States are now extremely disgusted with war, let alone helping their former enemy Germany to fight. The German army has been disbanded, and relying on that It is impossible for 100,000 national defense troops to fight against the French army. As long as France wants to occupy it, it will definitely be able to occupy it! But occupation will not solve the problem. On the contrary, it will brew another revolutionary crisis. Only at that stage will Britain and the United States stand up to clean up the mess, and France will! At that time, we can only give in." Contini stood up and explained, "The Ruhr area is the economic and industrial lifeline of Germany. Once occupied by France, the German economy will collapse... Our political turmoil some time ago caused the exchange rate to fall. 25%, how much do you think the mark will fall if the Ruhr area is occupied?”

"Maybe...at least...more than 50%."

"If the crisis lasts for more than 3 months, I dare to predict that the mark will fall by more than 90%!" Contini, who has time-travel experience, knows that the ordinary mark will eventually fall by more than 99.99999%, and at the craziest time, 1 trillion marks can be exchanged for 1 US dollar, but he can't be so sure. Predicting that the mark will fall by 90% is scary enough.

"So you want to engage in this speculation?" [Readers who have not seen the relevant content after "Iron Cross" 404 can follow the Weixin public account "Moon Shadow Wutong" to get the follow-up plot]

"Yes, the main bet is on the fall of the mark exchange rate. One-third of the position is intended to be directly speculated in foreign exchange, and the other two-thirds are arbitrage foreign exchange, and then see if some other speculation can be carried out." Contini said. He said, "I know you don't have 20 million liras in cash on hand. I plan to borrow money from a German bank using the family property as collateral, and then complete the work. There are still German banks in Rome. Your status, our The family's influence should make this loan easier."

If Contini came up directly and said that he wanted 20 million lire for speculation, old Ziano would definitely think that his son was crazy. But with the first successful speculation, coupled with the detailed discussion and analysis just now, old Ziano would definitely think that his son was crazy. Nuo was already 70% convinced. After pondering for a moment, he said: "I can't guarantee whether the family business can get a loan equivalent to 20 million lira from the bank, but I will try my best. In addition, the amount of money is too large. I If you are afraid that you will be at risk, you need to arrange for others to help you manage it.”

"Of course, I'm too young, and bankers will look down upon me. However, I hope I can have enough say in how to use it."

"Yes, although it is a family business, in the final analysis it will be yours in the future. If there is a loss, the loss will also be yours..." Old Ciano smiled slightly and found that there were still 15 minutes left before leaving the meeting, so he asked casually, "I I actually didn’t expect to be the Minister of Transport at first. I thought the leader would let me be the Minister of the Interior, which would also be a consideration for you.”

The old Ciano was actually a little confused when he said this. Everyone knew that the Minister of the Interior was more powerful. Unexpectedly, Mussolini had all the powers of the Prime Minister, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, and the Minister of the Interior. However, Contini’s answer was the opposite. Out of the blue: "No, Father, I think it would be better and more beneficial for you to be Transport Secretary than Home Secretary."

"Why?"

"Although the leaders formed a cabinet successfully and temporarily suppressed the voices of opponents, this resistance and opposition did not really disappear, but would show up in other forms. If you serve as Home Secretary, you will meet in the next few years. Regarding the endless protests, boycotts, and objections, the character of the leader will definitely require you to suppress them with an iron fist..." Contini blinked, "This is not in line with your personality, nor is it in line with our family's social status and life principles."

Old Ciano was silent. He was born into a noble family and had a high social status before. He naturally understood the intricacies of politics. Because of this, he was considered a relatively moderate senior member of the Black Shirt Party, and his methods were not as ruthless as those of the Big Four. , and also opposed to excessive violence and blood. Otherwise, with his status and influence, how could he succumb to the four giants?

He sighed: "Minister of the Interior can bring order and stability immediately, but it is not easy to be Minister of Transport. Italy's transport system is old and dilapidated. A slight improvement will cost money. Now the government is short of money... If it cannot achieve results, the leader will not be satisfied." ”

"I have two ideas that don't require much investment, but the results are very good..."

"Say it, say it." Old Ciano couldn't wait to signal his son to speak.