Manhattan Reborn 1978

new York.

Evening~

Near the intersection of Fourth Avenue and 39th Street, Kailiwei Steakhouse.

Sam Rogers and Bernard Madoff walked into the steakhouse one after another and were led by the waiter to a reserved table.

Harold Stone, the head of the FBI's New York branch, who had been waiting here for a long time, warmly invited the two of them to sit down. After watching Sam and the two casually order dinner, he very directly stated the main purpose of his treat.

Sam and Bernard Madoff, both of them felt very interesting and looked at each other at any time after listening to it.

Madoff smiled: "A few days ago, I just introduced a futures trader friend to Mr. Ezra Cremo."

"Mr. Stone, if you want to make quick money by investing and are willing to bear certain investment risks, commodity futures are more suitable for you than stocks and bonds!"

"Commodity futures?" Mr. Stone, who thought he had very little knowledge about financial investment, nodded and asked.

"Is investing in futures very profitable?"

"Of course!"

Madoff glanced at Sam, who was silent, and felt that he still had to "reinforce" himself, so he explained.

“When investing in commodity futures, you only need to pay a certain percentage of trading margin, and you can earn excess returns with a small investment!”

"The higher the margin payment ratio, the smaller the risk, and the corresponding short-term price fluctuations of the commodity will result in less income."

“The lower the margin ratio, the higher the risk, and the corresponding return will be high~”

"Can you understand if I explain it this way?"

"Uh... got it!"

"Ezra Claymore has told me some general information."

Mr. Stone took out a check from his pocket, slowly pushed it in front of Bernard Madoff, and asked in a low voice.

"This is fifty thousand dollars."

When Madoff saw Mr. Stone laying out the check so directly, he couldn't help but look at Sam and smiled.

"what do you say?"

Sam leaned forward, looked at the check carefully, nodded slightly and said: "This is the cooperation you want to discuss. I will only act as a witness tonight."

Madoff raised his eyebrows, picked up the check and asked Mr. Stone seriously: "Don't you need to think about it again?"

"Need not!"

“The greater the risk, the higher the reward ~ right?”

"Yes!"

"Hehe~"

Mr. Stone put his hands on the dining table and said calmly: "Before I was born, the doctor told me that my mother might be born prematurely."

"When I was on the baseball team in college, the coach told me that if I didn't train seriously and maintain good habits, I would most likely be reduced to a substitute or kicked out of the team."

"When I joined the FBI for training, my instructor told me that I must achieve the best results in all training subjects in order to achieve my dream."

"I'm now divorced once and have two beautiful children."

"Getting married is the riskiest decision I have ever made..."

"So I think no one can completely control risk by themselves."

"But the situation I'm in now leaves me with no more options."

"I can only take one gamble and try to change it!"

"..." Madoff didn't expect that Mr. Stone would actually talk about this.

Sam turned his head and glanced at the waiter who was coming with a dinner plate, and smiled at the two of them.

"Can you discuss the specific details tomorrow?"

"Okay!" Mr. Stone and Madoff looked at each other and changed the topic in a "tacit understanding".

----

Southeast Texas, Houston.

Evening~

West of downtown, 19 Piney Point Village, Memorial District, Piney Point Village.

David sat by the window of the study room, his fingers tapping rapidly on a mechanical typewriter produced in East Germany in 74.

The fast-paced and sweet clicking sound it made completely immersed Professor Bartlet, who was carefully studying the manuscript with a pair of glasses, into his own world.

David flipped a small switch with his right hand, released the card slot of the paper feeder, pulled out the last page of the manuscript from the typewriter, and threw it to his assistant Toby Olga, asking her to help proofread and correct errors.

After a moment.

"Done?" Professor Bartlet put down the manuscript, looked at David who was rubbing his forehead, and asked.

"Yes!"

David rubbed his cheeks vigorously a few times and said relaxedly: "The modifications to the previous manuscript are almost completed."

"I still need to re-arrange the contents of the next three major chapters and strive to complete them as soon as possible."

"Hmm~"

Professor Bartlett glanced at Toby Olga, slowly stood up from the wheelchair, walked to the window to face the afterglow of the setting sun, and said softly.

"Do you understand the main content of the agreement on the reform of the international monetary system adopted at the Kingston Conference in the capital of Jamaica in 76?"

"Jamaica Agreement?"

"Correct!"

David quickly found the relevant report content in his memory, stood up and walked to his mentor and said: "It officially confirms the legalization of the floating exchange rate system and recognizes the coexistence of fixed and floating exchange rates. Member states can freely Choose an exchange rate regime.”

"At the same time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will continue to strictly supervise the currency exchange rate policies of various countries, coordinate the economic policies of member countries, promote financial stability, and reduce the scope of exchange rate fluctuations."

"The agreement also provides for... the decision to gradually withdraw gold from international currency."

"It also stipulates: abolish the gold clause, cancel the official price of gold, and the central banks of member states can freely conduct gold transactions at market prices; cancel the requirement that member states must use gold to settle claims and debts among themselves and between member states and the IMF, and the IMF will gradually handle it. its gold holdings.”

David held the window sill with his hands, looked at the fiery red light from the west, and whispered: "It also enhances the effect of the Special Drawing Right (SDR, also known as paper gold)."

“And improve the SDR’s international reserve status, member states’ SDR shares and the IMF’s solvency.

"Expand its scope of use in the IMF's general operations, and timely revise the relevant provisions of the Special Drawing Rights, as well as credit financing lines for developing member countries, etc."

"Hmm~" Professor Bartlet nodded with satisfaction and asked again.

"In the "Money and Finance" you are going to write, you must focus on interpreting the positive effects and shortcomings of the "Jamaica Agreement" in maintaining the operation of the international economy and the economic development of various countries after it was officially put into operation for two years. !”

"Yes!"

David's eyes flashed with fiery red light and he smiled.

"The "Jamaica Agreement" is a new international monetary system established after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. The imf established a special committee and convened more than 20 member countries. After more than two years of intense debate, it managed to balance the interests of all parties and establish a new international monetary system. "

"Three months after the signing of the Jamaica Agreement, the Board of Governors of the International Monetary Fund adopted the Second Amendment to the IMF Agreement, which further improved the system."

"But~"

"If we say that under the Bretton Woods system, the international financial crisis was accidental and local..."

"In the current Jamaican system, if an international financial crisis breaks out and sweeps the world, it will become regular, comprehensive and far-reaching."

"After the general implementation of floating exchange rates in 73, currency exchange rate fluctuations and gold price fluctuations in the foreign exchange market often occurred. Small crises continued, and major crises occurred from time to time."

"In October last year, the exchange rate of the US dollar against other major international currencies fell to a historical low, causing severe turmoil in the entire international currency and financial market."

(Note: This is the famous Western currency crisis from 1977 to 1978, and it is also the basic reference scale for setting New York prices at the beginning of this book.)

"In accordance with the main content of the Jamaica Agreement, various countries have reduced the monetary role of gold, made the Special Drawing Rights the main international reserve assets of various countries, and strengthened the imf's supervision of international solvency;"

"At the same time, it also caused the value of the rice dollar in the freely convertible currency system to fall to a historical low."

"The credibility of the dollar, as the credit currency of the United States under the Jamaican system, has fallen below sea level."

When Professor Bartley heard David's "insightful" sarcasm, he smiled and nodded slightly without saying anything.

David leaned against the window more confidently and raised an index finger to his instructor: "To evaluate the functions and flaws of the Jamaican system, you must first understand its main characteristics."

"Its positive effects include: a diversified currency reserve structure, which allows countries to get rid of the rigid currency relations under the Bretton Woods system; it provides convenience for international economic and trade settlement and settlement; to a large extent, it solves the problem of freely convertible currency reserves of various countries. Inadequate contradictions, etc.~"

“Its shortcomings include: in a diversified international reserve structure, the issuing country of the reserve currency still enjoys various benefits such as “seigniorage”.”

"For example: the rice dollar issued by our country..."

"With diversified international reserves, there is a lack of unified and stable monetary standards, which in itself may cause international financial instability!"

"The balance of payments adjustment mechanism is not sound, and all existing channels have their own limitations. The Jamaican system has not eliminated the global balance of payments imbalance problem."

“The currency exchange rates of various countries fluctuate sharply, and one of the biggest negative impacts of the extremely unstable exchange rate system is to increase foreign exchange risks, thereby inhibiting international trade and international investment activities to a certain extent.”

"This negative impact will be particularly prominent for developing countries!"

David retracted his fingers, took out his wallet from his inner pocket, pulled out a Citibank credit card, and said to his mentor.

"Due to the disintegration of the gold standard and the gold exchange standard, the number of types and amounts of credit currency will increase greatly!"

"Various forms of credit payment methods such as checks, payment vouchers, and credit cards will gradually enter the lives of ordinary people and the development of the national economy."

"Correspondingly...the growth of total money supply and deposits will also be much higher than the growth rate of industrial production~"

“Until a certain country’s credit system encounters serious problems, causing drastic fluctuations in its national credit currency exchange rate, attracting the attention of international speculative capital, and a credit currency financial crisis breaks out.”

David put the credit card back into his wallet, shrugged to his mentor, Professor Bartley, and smiled.

"If nothing happens, within 20 years, Asia, which will have the fastest economic development in the world, will have an unprecedented credit, currency and financial crisis!"

"The factors causing this financial crisis include... the increasingly huge speculative hot money in the international financial market!!"

Professor Bartlet pursed his lips, frowned and repeated in a low voice: "Twenty years?"

"20 years!"

"..." He looked at David in surprise, not knowing what to say for a moment.

David didn't feel that he was "divulging the secret", so he clasped his fingers and explained to his mentor.

“Under the Jamaican system, developing countries in Asia must consider attracting more foreign investment on the one hand, and on the other hand, ensure the stability of their currency exchange rates + expand financial liberalization~”

"So, if they want to maintain a high economic growth rate in their country, they will definitely rely on external borrowing to maintain it."

"At the same time, I also threw out a bloody bait to the international hot money players~"

"Because most of these developing countries have not established a complete financial regulatory system, let alone guarantee that their central banks will have sufficient foreign exchange reserves for a long time."

"This will cause them to use foreign exchange reserves to make up for the deficit in the long term in order to maintain a fixed exchange rate system for their own currencies during a period of trade deficit, leading to an increase in foreign debt."

"Afterwards, when there are large amounts of medium-term and short-term debt, once foreign capital outflows exceed foreign capital inflows and the country's foreign exchange reserves are not enough to make up for the shortfall, the country's currency depreciation will be inevitable."

"Afterwards, once international hot money speculators discover which country or region is profitable, they will immediately impact the currency of that country or region through speculation in order to obtain huge profits in the short term."

Professor Bartley looked at David, was silent for a long time, and sighed: "Don't write these in the book, let alone mention them to others!"

"I understand~"

David turned his head and glanced at Toby, who was pretending to be "quail", and smiled.

"Time will always make everything get back on track!"

"I can only be a small wave rising in the long river of time."

"..."

Professor Bartley smiled, put his hand on his shoulder, smiled and nodded: "That's right!"

"I'm here, you don't have to worry!"

"Okay, teacher!"

"Hahaha~"

----

the other side of the Pacific Ocean.

Island country, Tokyo.

Early morning~

14-2, Keiya-mae, Shibuya-ku.

Mag Ludwig stood at the door of an antique-style house, waved to the driver Marat in the car behind him, stepped forward and rang the doorbell.

ten minutes later.

Mag stood in a European-style living room, looking at the surrounding furnishings with interest. His eyes finally fell on a row of weird ornaments. Just as he was about to pick them up and study them, he heard the owner's laughter. Come~

"Hahaha~"

"Hey! Mag!"

"It's really you!"

"Come here and let me take a look~"

"Hi Jerry!"

"Why do you look so thin?"

The middle-aged man whom Mag called Jerry laughed, hugged him, and said with a smile.

"You bastard!"

"I thought I would never see you again..."

Ma Ge deliberately shrugged at one of his best friends: "I didn't expect that God would let a beautiful angel save me."

"Hahaha~"

"Come, let's sit down and talk first!"

"Ok!"

. . .

Mag Ludwig's best friend was named Jeffrey Rand (Jerry).

He and Mag Ludwig were of the same age, and they entered Washington together and interned next to a certain senator. .

His father is Mr. Land, a former senator, and his mother's family is a large landowner in Michigan and North Dakota. .

Jerry, who is a second-generation official and a second-generation rich man, when Ma Ge successfully "infiltrated" President Nixon and became a "popular person", with Ma Ge's help, he also successfully "infiltrated" a presidential advisory group media Consultant status. .

However, he only "mingled" in the advisory group for less than a year before he was "sent" by his father, Senator Rand, back to Michigan to participate in a round of congressional elections~

It was the "wisdom" of the old Senator Rand that allowed his son Jerry to successfully escape the "Watergate Crisis" and did not end up like Mager. .Almost everyone shouted that he would be beaten!

Last year, when the down-and-out Mag Ludwig was found by Otis Parker, Jerry had been appointed by President Warren White as the deputy envoy of the U.S. Embassy in Tokyo.

The position of deputy ambassador to the embassy is only a transitional and casual position for him.

After two years in office, Jeffrey Rand (Jerry) will return home to run for Congress in Michigan or North Dakota.