I have a store in the comic world

Chapter 0260 Phase Replacement Skill Card

The following is a famous account of the Monty Hall problem, from a 1990 letter from Craig F. Whitaker to Marilyn Vos Savant's column in Show Magazine:

“Suppose you are on a game show and you are asked to choose one of three doors: one with a car behind it.

Behind the remaining two doors are goats. You choose a door, let's say it's door number 1, and then the host, who knows what's behind the door, opens another door with a goat behind it, let's say it's door number 3.

He then asks you, "Do you want to choose door number two?" Is it an advantage for you to switch your choices? "

The above account is an adapted version of the account Steve Selvin sent to AmericanStatistician magazine in February 1975.

As mentioned above, the Monty Hall problem is an extension of the game show segment; Monty Hall does open the wrong door on the show to increase excitement, but does not allow contestants to change their choices. .

As Monty Hall wrote in a letter to Selvin:

“If you’ve been on my show, you’ll know that the game is very fast—there’s no chance of swapping once you’ve chosen.”

Selvin first used the name "Monty Hall Problem" in a subsequent letter to the AmericanStatistician in August 1975.

An essentially identical problem appeared in Martin Gardner's Mathematical Games column in 1959 as the "Three Prisoners Problem."

Gardner's version of the selection process is clearly stated and avoids the implicit preconditions of the Display Magazine version.

This question probably first appeared in the 1889 book Calcul des Probabilités by Joseph Bertrand.

In this book, this problem is called "Bertrand's Box Paradox".

Suppose Mueser and Granberg come up with an unambiguous statement of the problem by clarifying the details and specifying the moderator's behavior:

Now there are three doors, only one of which has a car, and the other two have goats.

The car was placed behind one of the three doors.

Contestants choose one of three doors. He doesn't know what's behind any door before he picks it.

The host knows what's behind every door.

If the contestant picks a door with a goat, the host must pick another door with a goat.

If the contestant picks a door with a car on it, the host may choose one of the other two doors with a goat on it.

The contestant is asked whether to keep his original choice or switch to the remaining door.

Can switching options increase a contestant's chances of getting a car?

Solution one:

The answer to the question is yes: when a contestant moves to another door instead of maintaining their original choice, the chance of winning the car is doubled.

There are three possible scenarios, all equally likely (1/3):

The contestant picks goat number one, and the host picks goat number two. Conversion will win the car.

The contestant picks goat number two, and the host picks goat number one. Conversion will win the car.

"The contestant picks the car, the host picks the sheep number one. The switch will fail", and "The contestant picks the car, the host picks the sheep number two. The switch will fail." The possibilities for this situation are.

Another answer is to assume that you will always switch choices. In this case, the only possibility of winning is to choose a door without a car, because the host will definitely open another door with a goat later, eliminating the need to choose after switching choices. Possibility of getting to another sheep.

Since the total number of doors is three and the total number of doors with goats is two, the probability of winning the car by switching choices is 2/3, the same as the probability of selecting the door with the goat in the first choice.

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"Demon mirror", quantity: 1, item classification: B level, original selling price per unit: 10000 legendary points + 1 B-level main quest line, current unit price: 6000 legendary points + 1 B-level main quest line.

Daily store free area: "Phase Replacement Skill Card", quantity: 1, item classification: B level, single original selling price: 10000 legendary points + 2 B-level quest main lines, current order price: free.

Description: The Guards Corps has been looking for heroes who can help them fight against natural disasters, and finally they discovered the mysterious fairy dragon living on the lost continent.

After explaining the conflict with Queen Agreus, she decided to send her personal bodyguard Puck to reverse the tide of the entire war.

Although Puck is slender and mischievous, he has proven his performance on the battlefield.

Explosive magic balls that can pass through all enemies, fairy dust, and the ability to paralyze all enemies with unparalleled illusions have taught all enemies who fight her that you can't judge a book by its cover.

What appeared in front of them was endless deception.

The user can change the dimension he is in in a short period of time without suffering any damage.

The phase transfer state can be aborted at any time.

Maximum duration: 6 seconds, cooldown: 75 seconds.

hint:

Without the magic orb of illusion, the phase replacement skill can only be used in place.

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Kohler's dagger, quantity: 1, item classification: A-level, single original price: 10000 legend points + 1 A-level quest main line, current order price: free.

describe:

One of the most watched and controversial changes in 6.50B.

The escape dagger has lost its reputation and has become an "assault dagger" that can almost only be used offensively.

The ability of escape daggers to ensure survival has dropped to the lowest point in history, and its effect is not even as outstanding as Lothar's Edge. Heroes like the dwarf musketeers who almost only use escape daggers to save their lives will have to permanently give up escape daggers and choose other options.

For heroes who need to escape the dagger to fight first, the modification that cannot be used within 3 seconds after receiving damage also has a certain negative impact - especially in AOE confrontation - imagine that the Centaur Chief hiding in the corner is about to jump. In an instant, the opponent's king of gods suddenly unleashes the ULT thundergod's wrath.

Teleport, maximum distance 1500, can only be used when no damage is taken within 3 seconds, cooling time: 18 seconds.

hint:

Kohler's dagger can only be used on a map that has been detected.

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After Zhou Wenwen and Gu Yi looked at each other, Zhou Wenwen rushed into that world, and Gu Yi immediately used his own power to seal the space and use the time stone to pause time.

And Zhou Wenwen, who rushed into that world here, arrived in the land of Blood Rose, which is the abyss, in the blink of an eye.

At this time, Zhou Wenwen also saw the guy emitting red energy waves, chasing his clones running around.

She looks like a demon like Lanix, and she is also a female demon. The difference is that the horn is a single horn, there is no clothes to cover her body, and she is holding a red sword in her hand. This makes Zhou Wenwen pay attention to her. .

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Chapter 0261: Where to go to rescue the saint?