USSR 1991

"Yes, it's just a sign now, and it won't be too bad for a while. But if it drags on for a long time, it will definitely cause a major disaster. So that's why I will personally call you to the White House reason."

Ryzhkov understood that Yanayev would not have called him from the White House to the Kremlin without a serious situation.

"Now, I need your oversight of regulatory reform at the Financial Services Authority, we have a new war going on."

Yanayev sighed. Now he has energy income in his hands, a relatively balanced bond market, and even a considerable part of the foreign debt he owed before 1991 has been paid off. The Russian Federation in 1998 had a considerable advantage.

The next thing he should solve is the problem of regulatory chaos. Anyone who wants to make a profit through short selling or bribery, Yanayev will throw him into prison without hesitation to experience the teachings of capitalism.

Yanayev leaned forward and said in a low voice, "I hope that Minister Ryzhkov will not spread what I said next. At least no third person is allowed to know except you and me. "

Chapter 773 The Unknown Prophet's Prophecy

"You mean that there will be an Asian financial crisis affecting the Soviet Union in 1998? Is this true?" Ryzhkov widened his eyes, "Although the economy is showing a downturn as usual, it is not yet an economic crisis to what extent?"

This time Ryzhkov really dared not communicate Yanayev’s point of view. Although the general secretary’s predictions always have a crow’s mouth, but just relying on the fluctuation of the ruble’s exchange rate to determine the outbreak of a financial crisis in Asia and spread to the world, This prediction is too unreliable.

Yanayev did not give the other party room to discuss. He said directly, "Minister Ryzhkov may not agree with my point of view, and he does not need to agree with my point of view. In fact, you only need to follow my way. Just do it. It doesn’t matter whether you agree or not, the important thing is that you do what I ask.”

Regarding Yanayev's consistent tough style, Ryzhkov could only helplessly express that he was used to it.Even if he didn't tell himself the reason, it would definitely end unexpectedly.

"Please listen to me carefully, Comrade Ryzhkov, I don't want the Soviet Union to do that next step to stop the deterioration of the economy." Yanayev said seriously.

"That step? Which step is it?" Ryzhkov asked strangely, but Yanayev did not give him an answer.

历史上的俄联邦采取扩大卢布汇率浮动幅度。放弃了1997年11月11日时宣布的1998到2000年外汇走廊，将上限继续上调。然后是延期清偿内债。1999年12月31日前到期的国家短期债券转换成新的国家有价证券，期限和收益率等条件却是另行公布，在转换手续完成前国债市场停止交易，这就等同于在拖时间来缓解经济困难的局面。

The third measure is to announce the freezing of part of the foreign debt and defer payment to the outside world.For loans borrowed by Russian commercial banks and companies from foreign banks, investment companies, etc., insurance funds for loans secured by securities, and fixed-term foreign exchange contracts, the payment period is frozen for 90 days.At the same time, foreign investors are prohibited from investing funds in ruble assets with a repayment period of less than one year.

In fact, the Russian Federation used its status as a nuclear power to default on its debts. This nature is somewhat similar to the fact that after the founding of New China in 1949, it turned its back on any unequal treaties between the Qing Dynasty and the Republic of China.Anyway, I have no money to give you, and I like to do whatever I want, "Lao Lai".Those European and American bank oligarch creditors can only blow their beards and stare, otherwise what else can they do?Announcing the conquest of Russia?They still have the legacy left by the Soviet Union.Come on, let's hurt each other, at worst, grow mushrooms for your family.

However, this kind of behavior has a great blow to the country's credit. It cannot be used unless it is a last resort, and it cannot be used if the fist is not hard enough.For example, when the United States announced the decoupling of the U.S. dollar from gold and the Bretton Woods system gradually collapsed, other countries in the world dared not speak up and continued to pay for the United States.However, in contrast, the consequences of Argentina's dishonesty were much more serious, and there was even a food crisis in South American granaries.Farmers do not recognize their own currency, and they only need US dollars to buy.

"First of all, we can't mess up our steps. The support and investment should continue to increase support and investment to maintain the stability of the ruble exchange rate. More importantly, the Soviet Union needs a prudent economic stimulus plan to increase investors' interest in the Soviet Union. confidence in the market."

The caution Yanayev used was that he did not want to eventually become various debt crises and overcapacity problems brought about by a certain big country’s [-] trillion yuan plan.

"The second step is to speed up the negotiations with OPEC. The proven oil reserves of the Kara Sea oilfield have completely stimulated these self-righteous oil powers. Now we have a piece of oil on hand that is comparable to the oil in the Gulf of Mexico." The trump card of reserves, once we reach a common advance and retreat agreement with oil exporting countries, we will be able to stabilize oil prices.”

Now Yanayev is not very worried about the oil issue. The only thing he is worried about is the sharp drop in oil prices caused by the global oil glut. This is undoubtedly bad news for the Soviet Union, which relies on oil to survive this crisis.Before Yanayev's final industrial transformation was completed, oil was the only trump card in his hand.Originally, Russia's recovery since 1999 was based on the golden decade of commodity market recovery. At that time, the price of crude oil rose from a minimum of 10.35 US dollars to 2008 US dollars in 147. rich country".

The current crude oil price is maintained at 89 US dollars a barrel, although it is nearly half less than 2008 in 147, but it is enough to nourish the life of the Soviet Union.

"The third step, no matter what, we need to speed up industrial transformation. The Soviet Union cannot rely too much on the income from oil. Improve the proportion of agriculture and light industry, and even slow down the pace of heavy industry development to improve people's living standards. Sunrise industries such as high-tech industries cannot relax, and continue to be guided and encouraged by the government."

Yanayev is not worried about things like a real estate bubble. His only worry is that he is too dependent on the huge wealth brought by oil revenue, which will cause the entire country to suffer from the "Dutch disease".

Because with the increase of natural gas and oil exports, the exchange rate of the domestic currency also rises, and the wages of workers also rise at the same time. The result is a sharp increase in production costs, a sharp decline in the international competitiveness of industrial products, and economic deterioration.Accompanied by the deterioration of the economy, the fiscal deficit has also increased rapidly because the burden of the social security system, which has been greatly increased during the economic growth period, has put a huge pressure on the government's finances.The result of this is an unsolvable vicious circle.

The three countermeasures proposed by Yanayev are not groundless, but the conclusions drawn by Russia in history after experiencing a series of painful lessons.

"I see, General Secretary Yanayev."

As an economic expert, Ryzhkov is naturally convinced of Yanayev's suggestions. What's more, in the long run, Yanayev's suggestions are all aimed at making the Soviet Union's industry more balanced.

Ryzhkov was about to get up and leave Yanayev's office, but was stopped by the general secretary behind him.

"There is one more thing, Minister Ryzhkov. In the next week, the Soviet Union is going to have a consultation and dialogue with representatives of the Perik Organization who are visiting Moscow. I hope you can attend this meeting as one of the representatives."

Ryzhkov turned his head and asked in surprise, "Oh? Are there any other representatives?"

"Yes." Yanayev nodded and said affirmatively, "There is also a newly appointed economic policy advisor, Illarionov."

Chapter 774 The problem of light industry

During the financial crisis in 1998, international speculators tried to attack Hong Kong. However, when Hong Kong returned to China on July 2000, the central government handed over nearly 135 billion land funds to Hong Kong, which withstood the impact of Soros and other giants at that time. .In addition, Russia at that time played an even more extreme game, directly announcing the deferred repayment of 135 billion US dollars of debt, which was equivalent to a flagrant default.As a result, Russia has at least [-] billion US dollars on hand to deal with the attacks of international speculators, which is far beyond the capacity of international speculators. Under the influence of the defeat of Hong Kong and Russia, they finally chose to withdraw from this game.

Now Yanayev does not need to be crazy enough to use debt extensions to resist the financial crisis. The foreign currency reserves that can be used are enough to make any country that tries to attack the Soviet Union irreversible.And for those who dared to try to attack the financial stability of the Soviet Union, the KGB would gently knock on the door of their home.

The current oil revenue is the lifeblood of keeping the light industry, and Yanayev regards him as a hole card to save the Soviet industry.If Yanayev hadn't been supported by the government's tough policies, the bad light industry would not have been forced to survive from the last breath left to the present.

At the beginning, the Soviet Union had neither human cost advantages nor capital and technological advantages, nor even a huge market support.If Yanayev sells oil and gas to obtain high income, it will be even more impossible to develop light industry.The per capita GDP is too high, resulting in the production of light industrial goods that are too expensive and have no market at all.

It is impossible for the Soviet Union to have light industry with low labor costs and low value-added. Because of the high per capita GDP, light industry can only be started from medium and high-end light industrial products, otherwise there will be no profit to support the enterprise. The Soviet Union's industries started from the Stalin model. From the beginning of its abnormal development, it has always been a short board and lacks a social foundation.The income level of a country determines what kind of industry your country can develop.This principle is also applicable to Europe, the United States and Japan. In these high-income countries in the 90s, most of the low-value-added manufacturing parts of light industry were relocated or outsourced to low-wage countries such as China and Vietnam, and only the high-value-added parts of design and branding were retained. However, the Soviet light industry has neither high-grade design nor brand, so it is difficult to develop.

Now, it would be a dead end.But fortunately, the foundation laid by the Economic Mutual Aid Committee is still there, and Yanayev still has a chance to fight back.In fact, Yanayev couldn't figure out why the leaders at the time would come up with the idea of ​​letting other countries develop agricultural light industry and specialize in heavy industry.Maybe it's all the fault of the socialist way of thinking.It just made it more and more difficult to wipe the ass behind.

Since Yanayev came to power in 1991, he has been working on solving these problems, including encouraging births and even forcing an open immigration policy to attract foreign populations into the Soviet Union to engage in low-end labor industry production. The foreign population recruited is also mainly concentrated in In some countries in East Asia and Southeast Asia, the government allocates funds for the development of light industry every year and provides various preferential policies.

As a result of this, there has been a lot of opposition within the Kremlin. They believe that the government provides so many low-interest policies every year to ensure the development of light industry. The income can make the Soviet people live well enough, and there is no need for this kind of self-abuse development.

However, no one dared to oppose the policy decided by the general secretary. In the face of this tough attitude, the light industry, which almost started from scratch, has also improved slightly.

In fact, Yanayev is not without consideration. From the situation of Russia's sales of resources, it can be seen that a single oil export strategy will not work at all. When the world oil price plummets, it will be better to jump off the building together.Focus on heavy industry, light industry import Chinese model?According to the principle of seeking advantages and avoiding disadvantages, it is feasible, but in this way, it will only fall into the vicious cycle of Stalin's model.

Only by combining oil and heavy industry, vigorously supporting the development of light industry, and bringing the industrial ratio of the Soviet Union into a benign situation is what Yanayev wants to see.

It's hard to get back, it's hard to get back.Perfectly explained the current situation in the Soviet Union.

The domestic reform situation can only be regarded as laying the foundation, and the real improvement has to be left to the people who come later. Yanayev has achieved this step, and he can be regarded as knowing his destiny to the best of his ability.

And so far, the Kara Sea Oilfield is the last card to save lives. Although the Soviet Propaganda Department spread the news to the world that the Soviet Union has oil reserves in the Gulf of Mexico in just one sea, the real situation directly fed back from the oil exploration platform But it is not optimistic.

The main reason is that the cost of developing oil in offshore oil fields in the Arctic Circle is extremely high. The clean oil developed by China and the United States cannot be used in the extreme northern permafrost in those places. This is an important factor restricting the development of Kara Sea oil fields.The result of the high cost of oil extraction is the loss of competitiveness.

Yanayev closed the feedback report, feeling that a piece of paper became heavier than a ton of iron.

From now until around 2000, the Kara Sea will officially produce oil. There are still two years for Yanayev to use this hole card as a trump card for blackmail. This is his bargaining chip with OPEC. If there is an advance and retreat agreement, Yanayev will be under much less pressure.

He stood in front of the window of the office, his back looked a little depressed.After so many years of confrontation, Yanayev is almost exhausted, but this Kremlin will not grow old, it is still solemn and solemn, waiting for his next leader to take over.

Continue to maintain and increase the trend of oil prices, Far East development strategy.This is an important move that Yanayev must get back on track as soon as possible before he leaves office in 1999.Money is the most important thing to solve the Soviet Union's domestic contradictions and correct mistakes.Without sufficient financial support, everything is empty talk.

"I just want to get the final touches done before it's all over, and after waiting almost eight years, it's almost time to end."

In terms of the international political situation, the Soviet Union has taken care of East Germany, and the next step will be to target the Eastern European countries.Sorry, the current situation facing Eastern Europe is not as superior as it was in the past. The continuous global economic weakness has made Eastern European countries simply unable to match the historical development.

If the Soviet Union chooses to stop its offensive, NATO will accelerate its eastward expansion, and in the end it will be either you or me.

And death never belonged to the working class.

Chapter 775 Remember Their Fate

Andrei Ilarionov was historically the chief economic advisor to Russian President Comrade Vladimir and his personal representative to the G1994.His experience serving the Russian leadership spanned the two eras of Yeltsin-Chernomyrdin and Putin, which made him qualified as a witness of Russia's post-socialist transition.This is why Yanayev took a fancy to him. In [-], he resigned because he disagreed with the then government's economic policy of "economic shock therapy".

"The means used in the privatization of state assets were not only very idiosyncratic, but fundamentally wrong. The so-called 'loans for shares' that followed was also completely wrong. This measure was intended to gain support in the 1995 and 1996 elections There are many examples that can be given of the use of economic policy to achieve political goals." In history, Illarionov's remarks touched on the deepest pain of Russia's transition, and at the same time Yeltsin left office. year has caused considerable repercussions.

Many economic experts believe that the distortion of the collusion of power and capital has made Russia experience the most unequal and monopolistic privatization process. The oligarchic economic structure represented by Khodorkovsky and others is based on this formed on.