I’m in Hollywood

In a small conference room at Firefly's headquarters, Warren Buffett frowned and quickly read the investment materials of the Clover Fund in front of him.

Buffett originally thought that he would be rejected by Eric if he wanted to take a look at the stock portfolio of the Clover Fund. After all, this is a company's trade secret. Even if he is also a shareholder of Firefly Group, if Eric insists, he will still look at it. not reach.

However, to Buffett's surprise, Eric agreed very readily and did not even ask him to sign a non-disclosure agreement.

Now, looking at the pages of information in his hand, Buffett also realizes why Eric is completely defenseless against him.

The Shamrock Fund's equity portfolio is concentrated in three areas.

The first category is Internet technology stocks. The main investment targets include Microsoft, Intel, Cisco, aol, sun, Oracle, etc. This category of stocks accounts for more than half of the total investment scale.

The second category is the stocks of telecommunications companies, that is, companies such as at-t, sprint, and verizon. The investment ratio of this part is about 30%.

In the end, less than 20% of the investment went to a few large cable operators, namely Comcast, Telecom, Basic Cable, and even Time Warner.

To put it simply, these three types of company stocks are basically technology stocks that are currently very hot.

In recent years, both large investment funds and small retail investors have largely been chasing these types of stocks. Therefore, even if the Shamrock Fund's portfolio is made public, there is nothing special about it to outsiders.

In Buffett's eyes, Eric's investment portfolio is completely chaotic, without any rules.

Generally speaking, the more complex a fund's stock portfolio is, the more risk-resistant it is. But again, the fund is less likely to want high returns. Because of the diversification of stock investments, the fund's return on investment will be in line with the broader market.

Great investors have always been able to outperform the broader market. The reason why Buffett himself is called a stock god is that Berkshire Hathaway's annual growth rate has basically been far behind the Dow by more than ten percentage points for decades.

A fund's return on investment is in line with the broader market, which in Buffett's view simply doesn't make any sense. Because the growth of the stock market actually means the overall growth of the national economy, if factors such as rising prices and monetary inflation are excluded, the actual value and purchasing power of assets will not change much.

Of course, Buffett also understands that Eric is betting on the arrival of a new bull market in the Nasdaq market, and then taking the opportunity to carry out stock arbitrage, which is actually equivalent to outperforming the 'big market'. Buffett is not against stock arbitrage, and he does it regularly himself. However, Buffett will never hold arbitrage stocks for a long time, let alone buy large sums from Eric for a long time without purpose.

However, seeing the total value of the stock assets of the last Clover Fund, Buffett couldn't help but stunned, although his brows did not stretch.

In two years, the investment of 5 billion US dollars before and after this has been valued to 9.1 billion US dollars.

If you can sell all of the Shamrock Fund's shares, excluding taxes, plus Firefly Group's own surplus, the company's full-year net profit will exceed $7 billion.

Most of the company's financial reports in 1997 have not been disclosed. However, Buffett clearly remembers that in 1996, General Motors, the most profitable company in North America, had an annual net profit of only 6.88 billion US dollars.

As a top investor, Buffett has not put down the information in his hand, and he has already started to consider in his heart, if he owns the 7 billion US dollars,

How to invest.

Perhaps, you should first buy the National Insurance Company, which has been your favorite for a long time, and you can also increase your holdings of Coca-Cola. Compared with these high-risk stocks with a price-earnings ratio of fifty to sixty times, companies such as insurance companies and Coca-Cola are the best investment targets that can bring long-term stable returns.

When Eric walked into the conference room, he happened to see the old man thinking or in a daze.

Feeling a figure sitting across from him, Buffett reacted, put down the document in his hand, took off his reading glasses and said, Eric, I want to know, what exactly did you plan?

This year, Firefly will invest another 2 billion US dollars to buy technology stocks. I plan to accumulate capital for the next big expansion of Firefly Group, so that the company can minimize the proportion of equity transactions.

Buffett shook his head slightly and said, Eric, you haven't experienced a stock market crash, and you don't know how terrible it is, but I have seen some billionaires, facing a stock market crash, sometimes go bankrupt in just one day. . Most of these stocks that Clover Fund invests in, in my opinion, in the event of a stock market crash, most of them may fall below your purchase price in the short term.”

Warren, I'm not a greedy person, so I think I can still figure out when I should take the opportunity, Eric smiled and said confidently.

Eric didn't hesitate to show Buffett the Shamrock Fund's stock portfolio because he was confident that the data would not give Buffett any useful information. His most important trump card is actually his foresight of the future.

Although the rise and fall of the Nasdaq will be more or less affected by Eric's 'butterfly', the overall economic development trend at a national level will not change much. Eric's current influence Not yet to this extent.

Buffett shook his head again and said, I appreciate a manager's long-term layout of the company, but in my opinion, you have absolutely no need to take risks now.

Eric spread his hands and said, Warren, I'm not taking any risks. The $5 billion, and the $2 billion planned for this year, are the remaining funds of the Firefly Group itself. Even if all is lost, although it is a pity, It will not hurt the fundamentals of Firefly Group. If I want to take risks, I will definitely use investment leverage now. With a principal of 5 billion US dollars, it is still very easy to pry up a capital of 20 to 30 billion US dollars.

Although Buffett still felt that Eric's investment was too risky, he had to nod his words.

However, even with the prospect of huge profits, Buffett still does not agree with Eric's move in his heart. He prefers to hold the funds in his own hands and make the investments he wants.

Berkshire Hathaway's shareholding ratio in Firefly is 5%. In 1996, Firefly Group's net profit was $1.76 billion, and Berkshire Hathaway's dividends reached $88 million. In the same year , Berkshire Hathaway's net profit is only 725 million US dollars. In other words, Berkshire Hathaway's 5% stake in Firefly Group brings in more than 10% of its annual profit. As a diversified investment company, the 10% profit ratio is still very important.

Eric also guessed his general idea from Buffett's expression, and said with a smile: Warren, in fact, you can sell me the Firefly Group in Berkshire Hathaway's hands, just according to the recent Wall Street opinion. What do you think of Firefly Group's $100 billion valuation, 5% stake, $5 billion?

Firefly Group is definitely not able to come up with $5 billion in one-off funds. However, if Buffett or other shareholders are willing to give up the stock in their hands, Eric will not have much difficulty in raising $5 billion in the short term.

Eric, I will not give up my shareholding in Firefly Group. Buffett shook his head without hesitation after hearing what Eric said, smiling.

He has studied in detail the current development of Firefly Group. Although this company is getting bigger and bigger, it does not have any redundant and bloated trend.

Under the entire Firefly Group, Firefly Pictures, New Line Cinema, Disney Pictures, Bubba International Distribution, abc TV network, ae TV network, espn TV station, Pixar Animation Studio, Disneyland, Digital Domain, etc. The long list of subsidiaries are all high-quality assets that can bring huge profits to the parent company. Such a large media group that can achieve diversification but complement each other is simply Buffett's dream.

As long as Eric does not make a company development strategy that is completely unreasonable in his opinion, Buffett will never sell his shares in Firefly Group. After all, even if it is impossible to obtain profit and dividends from Firefly Group, the stock of such a company is destined to achieve stable appreciation for many years to come.

Eric also did not expect Buffett to sell his shares, but still said: Warren, you can also tell other people that if they want to sell Firefly Group shares at any time, I can give the most generous buyback. Price. The annual growth rate of Firefly Group is actually very low. I think in the next few years, they will definitely be interested in Nasdaq technology stocks, and they need money to invest.”

Buffett patted the investment information of the Clover Fund in front of him and said, In my opinion, this is just a bunch of bubbles.

I don't think so, Eric shook his head and said: After the Southeast Asian economic crisis, countless hot money will flow to North America. At that time, even if the bubble accumulated by trillions of dollars is broken, the rest will be for us. , and a great fortune.”

Buffett still had a gentle smile on his face, shook his head and said: Eric, I will not be tempted by you. My investment principle is not to involve fields that I am not familiar with. If I like a company, I will first Study it thoroughly and then you will be shot.

If you think about it, this applies to you as well. The Firefly Group and Firefly Investment in your hands, as well as its countless subsidiaries, have grown to a very large scale. Although you still maintain a good control over these companies, you will feel powerless sooner or later. At that time, all you have to do is to abandon the areas you are not familiar with and develop the things you can control to the extreme.

Eric nodded and said, So, among the professional managers in North America, the one I admire most is Jack Welch.

I can introduce you if you're interested, but Jack is too obsessed with diversification, which is not a good thing, and GE's business has actually become bloated. I think the next ten years, regardless of Actively or forced, GE will gradually scale back its business.

After Buffett finished speaking, he analyzed enthusiastically: Actually, in the early days of Jack's tenure, he started from the precision cutting business. At that time, GE's business and staff system were bloated. Jack once took GE's management level from eight layers. It was only after reducing to three floors that the company was able to operate lightly, and it has grown to a scale of nearly 300 billion US dollars in assets with more than 100 subsidiaries.

But no manager's business philosophy can be perfect. Although Jack has excellently ensured the rapid development of General Electric for more than ten years, the problems accumulated over the years due to the defects of his own management style have also It's bound to get worse. For example, Jack is too obsessed with diversification. In my opinion, General Electric has more than 100 subsidiaries, such as the nbc TV network, which is basically unnecessary. If the next manager fails to address his legacy flawlessly, GE will inevitably decline.

Eric listened carefully to Buffett's analysis, and when he finished speaking, he asked with a smile, What about you, Warren, you have been in charge of Berkshire Hathaway for more than 30 years?

It's different, it's very different, GE is a brick and mortar business, I'm an equity investor, and I haven't stopped changing my portfolio for decades. Not to mention. Berkshire Hathaway now Its market cap is just over $39 billion, which is far from 'bloated' to me.

After Buffett finished speaking, he looked at Eric with a smile and said, So, I'm actually still very jealous of you, this little guy. In just ten years, your achievements have far surpassed those of us old guys. All my life. Sometimes I want to take a big bet like you did in the Kuwait war, the economic crisis in Southeast Asia, and now the new tech wave, but unfortunately, I can't convince myself to take such a risk in the end. By the way , Have you made a lot of money in Southeast Asia this year?

$1.1 billion, Eric didn't hide it, and said, I didn't think there would be so much.

As far as I know, the two funds in Soros' hands have made about $6 billion this time, and his own income is $2 billion, but your principal is definitely much lower than the two funds in Soros's hands. Buffett said, and couldn't help shaking his head with emotion.