I’m in Hollywood

After becoming a shareholder of Firefly Pictures, both Warren Buffett and David West began to pay attention to the Hollywood film market. Want to see??Book 1 Book k?a?nshu·

After Eric finished speaking, the three of them realized that this year Hollywood, whether it was the hugely successful The Mummy, Saving Private Ryan and other films, or the failed Beverly Hills Detective 3 or Law Enforcement Titans. ”, the type strategies adopted are what Eric said are comprehensive, so they also agree with the conclusions in the first article.

The three of them did not lose their temper to ask Eric why he was talking about this, but quietly followed Eric's actions to open the next page of information.

Let me make a statement first, Eric said after turning over another page of documents: My plan is to close Disney's hand-drawn animation department, but I definitely didn't say that I would stop Disney's animation production, I just want Disney to let it go. animation studios have moved from traditional hand-drawn animation to more advanced digital animation production.”

Of course, the three of Buffett knew this, and they all smiled and nodded in agreement. They also knew why Eric said that. Now the rumors about Eric's move have been exaggerated to the point that Eric wants to replace the Disney brand with Firefly. to the point.

Eric smiled and said: Then, the following information is a comparison of the four animated films Disney made between 1991 and 1994, Beauty and the Beast, Aladdin, Toy Story and Toy Story A Bug's Life. These four films represent typical 2D animations and 3D animations. Overall, we can see that Beauty and the Beast and Aladdin's total box office is slightly higher than the two 3D animations, but From the analysis of the box office curve, it is not difficult to see that Beauty and the Beast and Aladdin are very standard long-term screening models. The eight-week box office of the two films accounted for only 57% and 53% of the total box office, while Aladdin accounted for only 57% of the total box office. The corresponding figures for Toy Story and A Bug's Life are 89% and 88%, which is a typical full-scale movie. At the same time, we can see that the release of Toy Story and A Bug's Life Screen counts slid below home at 13 and 12 weeks, respectively. Giving the screen to other films. While Beauty and the Beast and Aladdin maintained their screen counts for 25 and 21 weeks respectively, I I believe that in the next few years, when the comprehensive line completely occupies the mainstream of the market, in order to obtain more box office, it is absolutely impossible for this kind of long-term occupation of a large number of screens to continue.”

Tom Murphy asked: Eric, this doesn't seem to be enough to prove that 2D animation is about to be eliminated. We can make 2D animation also use full-line mode. The Lion King seems to be like this. A book? w?www.1.”

David West and Warren Buffett nodded without a trace.

Eric seemed to expect that they would ask this question, and said with a constant smile: Then. Let's move on to the next document.

The three of Buffett looked at each other,

Scroll to the next page again.

The next thing I want to explain is why 2D animation can't use full line mode, Eric glanced at Tom Murphy and said: We have just reached a tacit understanding that The Lion King is just an event movie, From the box office trends of animated films such as The Little Mermaid, Roger Rabbit, Beauty and the Beast and Aladdin, we have not seen any expansion of the 2D animation market, so I hope everyone can ignore The Lion for the time being. King, can you?

Tom Murphy nodded embarrassedly, Warren Buffett and David West have already looked at the information in their hands.

Eric continued: What everyone is looking at is a weekly box office comparison table of four animated films. We can see that the weekly box office fluctuations of the two 2D films are very unstable, even after eight weeks, there will be sudden In a state of highs and lows, sometimes the box office has slipped to more than ten thousand dollars, but suddenly it rose to more than ten thousand the next week. The other two films have a stable falling box office curve similar to that of Chengrenxiang films. Why does this happen? situation, the answer is on the next page.

After the four of them turned the page at the same time, Eric looked up at the three of them. He smiled and said, Did the amazing bar in the first histogram attract attention?

After Eric's reminder, even if they didn't notice it at first, the three of Buffett saw the abrupt bar in the first bar graph.

The bar chart in front of me lists the proportions of the audience of different age groups for 2D animation movies and 3D animation movies. In order to show the results more intuitively. I divided the audience ages into (o-13 years old), ( 14-18 years old), (19-28 years old) and (\u003e28 years old) these four intervals, these data come from Disney's previous market research reports, there is no doubt about the accuracy.

Eric briefly explained and said: We can clearly see that in 2D animation movies, the o-13-year-old young audiences account for an astonishing 41% of the total audience. ?ww?w?·1· For the same data of 3D animation movies, the proportion is only 26%. However, this does not mean that the number of children who like 3D animation has decreased, but because the number of viewers over the age of 13 has increased significantly Increase, in the bar chart, the proportions of the two types of films in the 14-18-year-old audience form a strong contrast with the o-13 range, which are 17% and 29% respectively, and the 19-28-year-old age range, this contrast is the same Obviously, they are 7% and 16% respectively. I believe that the 7% of the 2d animation population in this age range must also have a large part to take their children with them, and the audience over the age of 28 watching 2d animation, I I believe it is basically to meet the children's viewing needs.

After briefly describing the data, Eric stopped looking at the document and looked up: Disney has always had the practice of re-releases previous 2D hand-drawn animated films every seven years, this is because Disney itself also puts children aged 7-13 years old. Audiences are the main viewing group, and every seven years, a new group of child audiences appear. Through these detailed statistics, it is not difficult to see why the box office curve of 2D animation movies is very unstable and why only long-term screenings can be adopted. model.

Because the audience of 2D animation movies is very young, these children do not have the ability to act independently and must be led by their parents to watch movies. Even during the summer vacation, adults still need to work, and they often can only pass Only on weekends or some special holidays can children be taken to watch 2D cartoons. In order to meet the very uncertain schedule of parents, film companies must adopt the long-running screening model that will soon be eliminated in order to fully tap the box office potential of 2D animations.”

3D animation movies are different. This new animation movie mode is not only loved by young children, but also recognized by teenagers and some adult audiences who have formed their own purchasing power. According to the statistics of the audience just now, 3D animation The proportion of children's audience for the film is only 26%, while the total audience proportion of the main movie consumer groups aged 14-28 reaches 45%. This proportion is almost the same as the audience of live-action movies, which is why 3D animation movies can be used in the same way as live-action movies. market strategy.”

After Eric finished speaking, the three of Buffett fell into a brief contemplation, and Eric did not disturb the three. He raised his hand and looked at his watch. Before he knew it, fifteen minutes had passed. He didn't want the waiter in the restaurant to barge in, so he turned his head and whispered a few words in Kelly Haynes' ear.

Although Kelly Haynes was a little reluctant to give up Eric's high-spirited speech, she still obediently got up and walked out. When she walked to the door, Kelly Haines realized that Eric had almost reached her ear just now, maybe she could kiss her cheek a little further, but she didn't show any resistance. Emotions, but at this time, I felt that the earlobe that was brushed by Eric's breath was inexplicably hot.

He heard a soft closing of the door behind him. Eric looked at the three who had recovered and said with a smile, So, shall we continue?

The three of Buffett nodded. Although they could still pick out a lot of questions in their hearts, looking at more than half of the information left in their hands, the three of them subconsciously felt that the young man in front of them must have considered any questions they might ask. one question.

Tom Murphy and David West were almost persuaded by Eric at this time, and Buffett looked at Eric with a lot of approval and eagerness. He is 65 years old this year, although he is still Vigorous. But the question of death has begun to haunt him and other partners in the firm. Many of Berkshire Hathaway's partners have asked him more than once about the company's next heir, and several of Buffett's children apparently did not. competencies for this job.

Although Buffett believes that he can still work for at least ten years, he once joked that even after his death, he will appear to manage Berkshire Hathaway. But anyone, including himself, is very clear that once he dies, Berkshire Hathaway will definitely usher in unknowable great changes.

Buffett has also tried more than once to develop an heir, but has failed several times. And now this young man who can calmly see the trend of an industry exhibition despite the popularity of The Lion King at the box office, and choose a long-term plan instead of greedy for temporary benefits. His keen insight and firm execution have always been the most important prerequisites for his ideal heir.

only……

Buffett soon had a strong regret in his heart. Eric's current wealth and status also mean that he is unlikely to serve as the next leader of Berkshire Hathaway, because Buffett prefers his heir Be able to focus on Berkshire Hathaway's operations without distracting others, but Eric's industry is already much larger than Berkshire Hathaway's, and he owns Berkshire Hathaway It is difficult for Eric to devote too much energy to managing this equally huge company.

Although it is regrettable to confirm this, Buffett is still a little unwilling in his heart.

Eric didn't know what Buffett was thinking. Seeing the three of them had no objection, he said: Then, after talking about the external factors that affect 2D animation, the next is the internal reasons. I think everyone must be aware of the cost difference between the two movies. Yes, the two 2D animated films listed here cost less than ten thousand dollars, while the cost of Toy Story and A Bug's Life are $10,000 and $10,000 respectively.

Speaking of this, Eric paused and said: First, I want to explain a problem, whether it is 2D or 3D animation, the main cost is the cost of human resources, and each frame of the two animation films is artificial. What is drawn is just a different drawing carrier. Because hand-drawn animation has been exhibited for more than half a century, the entire industry is very mature and the number of animators is very large, so even the best hand-drawn animations in the world from Disney Animation Studio There are very few teachers with an annual salary of more than 10,000 US dollars. However, digital animators are a newly emerging profession, and talents are very scarce. Therefore, after the success of Toy Story, in order to prevent Pixar's skilled digital animators from being poached by other film companies , Firefly had to raise their salaries. Similarly, after The Lion King, if Disney continues to maintain the hand-drawn animation department, these animators with an average annual salary of $50,000 may earn more than $10,000 a month in the future. , that is, the production cost of 2D animation will be doubled...

Hearing this, Tom Murphy suddenly interrupted Eric with a smile and said, Eric, did you just say that The Lion King is an event movie?

Of course, but I think so, it doesn't mean that the whole Hollywood thinks so. Don't they all think that the golden age of 2D animation is coming? Eric knew that Tom Murphy was just joking, explained a sentence, and continued Said: The production cost of The Lion King has already exceeded 10,000 US dollars. If it is doubled, the cost of 2D hand-drawn animation in the future may exceed 100 million US dollars.

Eric clearly remembers that in 1999, when he happened to see the latest 2D hand-drawn animation Tarzan by Disney's publicity company through the Internet in 1999, he played the banner of the highest-cost animated film in history and promoted the Tarzan of the Apes to the outside world. The production cost has reached 150 million US dollars, and then the North American box office of this film is only 170 million. According to Eric's accumulated experience, the cost plus the huge line expenses, this live-action animation Even if the follow-up is calculated. The peripheral profits of Disney are also very likely to be lost.

Then, if in the next few years, theater operators are no longer willing to waste screen resources and continue to carry out long-term operations for 2D animated films, the cost of up to 100 million US dollars and the average propaganda investment that may rise to 10,000 US dollars, we are almost certain, unless we continue to If there is an event film like The Lion King, otherwise it will be difficult for the company to recover the cost of the film through the box office. Then, you must say that the peripheral income of animated films has always been very rich, then, let's move on to the next statistic material……

The three of Buffett were inexplicably poked into laughter by Eric's last sentence, and they all continued to turn the page with a smile. At the same time, Kelly Haynes, who had just left, also silently returned to Eric's side. . (To be continued.)

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