I just want to be a quiet scholar

Chapter 290 Princeton Internal Prediction
In mid-July, Shen Qi returned to Princeton.

At this time, there are still more than three months before the International Congress of Mathematicians in late October.

There are different opinions from all walks of life on which Philippine award will be awarded this year.

The news released by the IMU is: "What annoys us is that although we have decided to award the four Fields Medals, it is still difficult for us to make a decision and choose the best four among many outstanding mathematicians."

"Under the premise of fairness and justice, the selection process is going on in an orderly manner."

"This International Congress of Mathematicians will last for 9 days, and on the 9th meeting day, we will announce the winners of this Fields Medal."

The above is the official news of the IMU, which can be summed up in two points:

1 Four people won the prize;

2 is still under selection.

The most recent concern of the Princeton Department of Mathematics is, of course, the Fields Medal.

More than a dozen mathematicians from the whole department were invited to participate in the Mathematicians Conference in October. Two of them are expected to win prizes, Professor Figali and Shen Qi. They both won the Breakthrough Prize in Mathematics a few months ago. to a $10 million prize.

Figalli was qualified for the 1-hour report of the International Congress of Mathematicians, and Shen Qi was 45 minutes.

During coffee time on Wednesday at the Department of Mathematics of Purdue University, Professor Faltings, the winner of the Fields Medal in 1986, released a set of research data: "Considering the evaluation factors such as research results, research directions, age, qualifications, momentum, etc., I think that Munich Simon Brende from the University, and Joseph Ayoub from the Ecole Normale Supérieure in Paris, the two of them will almost lock up two Fields Medal places. Through the mathematical method, the data I got is that Simon Brende The probability of winning is 65.76%, and that of Joseph Ayyub is 57.35%.

Professor Faltings' one stone stirred up a thousand waves, and everyone talked about it.

Professor Muller expressed his opinion: "Simon Brende, he is a genius. I often communicated with him when I was teaching in Germany. The winning rate that Greid offered to Brende was 65.76%. I think it is still conservative. He The winning rate is at least 70%, and it is expected that more than [-]% of the judges will vote for Simon Brende."

Simon Brende was a German mathematician, a fellow German of Müller and Faltings.

Mary, another German in the cafe, is also optimistic about Simon Brende: "This Fields Medal is the last for Simon, and this award should be awarded to him."

Faltings wrote a set of data on the blackboard:
[Simon Brende, German, 39 years old, University of Munich, differential geometry, partial differential equations, 1 hour (45 minutes, 30 minutes), 65.76%]

Faltings said: "I still insist that Simon Brende has a 65.76% chance of winning, but even so, he is the favorite."

The guests in this cafe are all insiders, and everyone knows the rules of the game.

The German mathematician Simon Brende of the University of Munich focuses on differential geometry and partial differential equations, and has achieved outstanding research results in these two fields.

Simon Brende was qualified for a 1-hour report at the International Congress of Mathematicians, while in the previous and previous conferences, he delivered 45-minute and 30-minute reports respectively.

Simon Brende, who became famous at a young age and became a god at a young age, survived two Philippine Awards. He is 39 years old this year and will compete for the Philippine Award for the last time in his life.

Comprehensive evaluation, the 39-year-old German mathematician has the highest probability of 65.76% to lock in a place for this year's Philippine award, which is a reasonable prediction.

Even Shen Qi and Figali admitted this fact.

"I am very familiar with Simon because our research fields are very similar." Italian mathematician Figalli said that his fields of expertise are also differential geometry and partial differential equations.

Shen Qi drank his coffee and remained silent. In his opinion, if Simon Brende won this year's Philippine Award, then his colleague Figali would have to wait for the next one.

Faltings continued his opening on the blackboard:
【Joseph Ayoub, French, 39 years old, Algebraic Geometry, Ecole Normale Supérieure, 1 hour (45 minutes, 30 minutes), 57.35%】

The situation of French mathematician Joseph Ayoub is similar to that of Simon Brende. He has a background and qualifications. He is 39 years old this year and participated in the Philippine Prize competition for the last time.

Joseph Ayub's winning rate is 57.35%, which is lower than Simon Brende's 65.76%. Faltings gave his professional explanation: "If the 'Ayyub Identity Conjecture' is completed If the degree is 100%, then Ayyub's winning rate will be adjusted to 100%. Unfortunately, the completion rate of the 'Ayyub Identity Conjecture' is around 60%, so my prediction for his winning rate is 57.35%.

"Joseph Ayub ranks second, no problem." Everyone agreed with Professor Faltings' professional prediction.

Shen Qi said very curiously: "Professor Faltings, according to your mathematical processing method and probability statistics system, who is the mathematician who ranks third in winning rate this year?"

Faltings wrote on the blackboard:

[Jordy Williamson, Australian, 38 years old, University of Freiburg, Lie theory and representation theory, 1 hour (45 minutes), 48.03%]

The two European mathematicians ranked first and second in the winning rate have a high recognition value within the Department of Mathematics of Pudong University.

However, when it came to Williamson, the Australian mathematician who ranked third, there were differences within the Department of Mathematics of Puda.

"Grad, I understand. Your ranking is based on the age of the candidates. The closer to the 40-year-old candidate, the higher the winning rate in your prediction system." Director Fefferman questioned, he said To: "According to this setting, Alessio and Qi, the two of them have no hope this year."

That's right, Shen Qi also understood that Professor Faltings' ranking was based on seniority.

Of course, there are prerequisites for seniority ranking. The Australian mathematician Williamson has made extremely great contributions in the field of Lie theory and its representation theory, which can be described as the contemporary No. 1 in this research field.

"Jodi Williamson is an outstanding mathematician. I recognize his important contributions in the field of Lie theory and its representation theory. However, Grad, I still think that Jodi Williamson's winning rate is set too high. It’s falsely high. Under normal circumstances, the Fields Medal is awarded to mathematicians in the field of Lie theory and its representation theory, and the probability will not exceed 40%.” Fefferman was the winner of the Fields Medal in 1978. He combined his own With experience and experience, it is suggested that Professor Faltings lower the winning rate of Jordi Williamson.

"I will recalculate Jodi Williamson's winning percentage tonight, but it is undeniable that he is one of the popular candidates for the Fields Medal this year." Sources of information channels, as well as a unique method of calculation and statistics.

Shen Qi habitually counted. According to Professor Faltings’ professional prediction, this year’s Philippine Award has almost 2.5 places. In Professor Faltings’ prediction system, I may even win 5% of the prizes. Can't reach the rate?
(End of this chapter)