1991 Starting from the core

"So we tend to think that over a longer period of time, subprime lending will become extremely dangerous."

Listening to Vivian explain her analysis, and finally gave a very conservative estimate... Su Yuanshan did not express his position - after all, those who work in investment banks are all top-notch people, whether it is IQ or IQ. The so-called emotional intelligence - observing people's emotions and analyzing psychology is the basic skill. Since I asked her to analyze it, it naturally means that I am paying attention to subprime mortgages with a negative attitude...

As long as Vivian grasps her own psychology, she will naturally be able to make the "correct" response.

This doesn't count - even if she talks very logically.

However, who is involved in finance who can’t tell this?

"How long is the longer cycle?" Seeing that Vivian was nervously waiting for her reaction, Su Yuanshan asked after pondering for a few seconds.

"This..." Vivian saw that Su Yuanshan's expression was still focused and scrutinizing, and she knew that Mr. Shan was obviously not satisfied with her "answer sheet".

So she became even more nervous.

At this time, Sun Xihui on the side saw this, coughed slightly, and laughed: "Do you want to eat some fruit? I will order some to be brought over."

Su Yuanshan nodded: "Then let me get some mango."

"Okay, Xiaowei wants apples, right?"

…

After Sun Xihui's interruption, Su Yuanshan realized that he might be putting too much pressure on others - so he smiled gently and said: "Don't think too much, just give your first impression and judgment."

"Okay." Vivian also calmed down and said with a smile: "Actually, as far as I am concerned, I am still optimistic about the free financial market. After all, this is what we have learned. But historical experience tells us that in In finance, it’s best not to trust experience, otherwise you will lose miserably.”

"Ha, well said!" This sentence was recognized by Su Yuanshan.

Vivian pursed her lips and smiled: "For example, in the Asian financial crisis, several companies lost miserably - who would have thought that the north would default on its debts? Then the money coming back objectively caused the birth and burst of the Internet bubble - and the Internet After the bubble burst, a large amount of capital looked for new profit targets, and subprime mortgages were born. From this point of view, subprime mortgages themselves have become bubbles..."

"But we know that economic bubbles may not burst sometimes - or they burst by chance, such as Black Monday in the history of the Internet. A large number of stocks came from technology and Internet companies such as Newbook, Microsoft, Xinghai, Cisco, etc. Concentrated on Monday, these large sales orders worth more than 2 billion US dollars directly triggered other people to follow suit and then became the trigger for the collapse of technology stocks..."

"Sometimes, bubbles need someone to pop them before they burst - for example, Southeast Asia, under the peaceful environment of 1980 and 1990, undertook technology and capital transfers from developed countries, especially Japan. And in Japan, the economy is in At the end of the last century, when the yen was in decline, Soros and others came to add fuel to the fire... Then the economy of the Four Little Tigers and others would not be able to withstand it - they were different from HK in the financial crisis. It’s just puffiness, and HK has a system problem.”

"So, if you ask me about the specific time, I really don't know how to answer - maybe the United States can digest the bubble directly? But if someone pokes it, then I feel that in the next two to three years, if Western capital still can't find a better outlet, so the subprime loan model will come to an end. After all, it is positively related to housing prices. And we cannot assume that the United States can accept the continued rise in housing prices..."

Hearing this, Su Yuanshan finally smiled.

not bad.

*

*

"Vivian still believes too much in the self-regulation ability of the free economic market, but it's not her fault. After all, this is what she learned - well, I admit, this method can explain many things, and it is also the most effective one at the moment. of."

After seeing Vivian off, Su Yuanshan and Sun Xihui sat in the back garden drinking tea and chatting.

He put down the tea cup, lay down on the beach chair, and completely relaxed: "After all, she still can't escape her identity."

"What you said, who can easily reveal their identity? Do you think everyone is like you..." Sun Xihui skillfully cut a mango in half, then shaved off the core of the mango, and then used the tip of the knife to cut the mango from the She lightly scratched the inside of the meat a few times to create small squares. Then she gently used the skin to make these small squares bulge.

She handed the mango to Su Yuanshan, pulled out a napkin and wiped her hands before smiling: "Then what should we do next? Poke?"

"Well, it must be poked...but not by us."

Su Yuanshan ate the diced mango and took a look at the peel. There were no trash cans around.

"Just throw it on the ground and let people sweep it up later."

"Okay, you said it." Su Yuanshan wiped his mouth and chuckled: "The subprime mortgage crisis is just a trigger. If just a few capitalists go bankrupt, it's nothing... If it affects the confidence of bulk capital, and then If it extends to the personal consumption capacity and confidence of Laos and the United States, then this will be troublesome... We must admit that under the premise that the U.S. dollar is still dominant in the world today, the market of Laos and the United States is still the largest market and is related to the global economy."

"There is a popular saying now that when the United States catches a cold, the whole world sneezes. This sentence is so damn right - for us, it can even cause a fever... After all, our foreign exchange reserves are now almost completely It’s a beautiful sword.”

Sun Xihui blinked: "Then what?"

"Then let the world see... how bad it would be if the whole world's economy was tied to one country."

"So who's going to poke it?"

"Wait a while, wait until they blow it up a bit, and you have to keep paying attention. In addition to the size of the subprime mortgage market itself, there are also various default rates, housing price expectations, etc., at least more than half a year of data."

"As for who will come...of course it will be to save our old friend again."

——Because Qin Si was born in Damo, whether it is Xinghai or Oak Tree, his relationship with Damo is not an ordinary close one.

In addition, Su Yuanshan twice helped Morgan Stanley close the trap - once to avoid Russia's debt default, and once to allow them to obtain the greatest success in the Internet bubble.

It can be said that...if it weren't for the fact that Su Yuanshan couldn't be hired, those guys from Damo who got into money's eyes would definitely ask Su Yuanshan to take charge of Damo without any hesitation.

With such a relationship, Su Yuanshan is of course willing to "help" them again.

——Well, in fact, in history, Morgan Stanley was the first to pay attention to the risk of the subprime mortgage bubble and publish an investigation report, which then caused a chain reaction, eventually bursting the bubble and triggering the subprime mortgage crisis.

*

*

In the next two days, Su Yuanshan went to the Hong Kong government again. After returning, he visited Silicon Core, ivideo and ATV. For the last time, he went to the "Far Core Asian Academy of Sciences" in Cyberport.

In the Asian Academy of Sciences, Su Yuanshan met Zhang Yitang who was walking with his wife.

"Hello, Professor Su."

Zhang Yitang's wife first greeted Su Yuanshan. Finally, the increasingly fashionable woman made a gesture of clasping her hands: "Congratulations to Professor Su for winning the Nobel Prize in Physics."

"Haha, Xiti? Where did my sister-in-law learn this trick?" Since Su Yuanshan abducted Zhang Yitang back, he and Zhang Yitang have not met many times, but they usually communicate through emails - Su Yuanshan knows that the other party is a big boss in pure mathematics, so With the mentality of not using it in vain, Zhang Yitang's wisdom is not in vain.

"She must have studied TV shopping." Zhang Yitang stood still and explained to his wife with a smile. Then he looked at Su Yuanshan with emotion on his face: "Professor Su, this Nobel Prize is really not easy."

"Haha, some people say it's too simple... Come on, senior brother, let's go for a walk?"

Seeing that the two men had something to say, his wife looked around and saw Wen Xiaoqian, so she pulled Wen Xiaoqian behind them and started chatting together.

…

"Senior brother, are you used to being here? I thought I could see you when I gave a speech at the University of Hong Kong that day." Su Yuanshan put his hands in his pockets and walked slowly with Zhang Yitang.

After Lao Zhang came back after being deceived by him, he first entered the Academy of Asian Sciences, and then went to teach at the University of Hong Kong according to his own wishes, and was directly offered as an associate professor - Lao Zhang was extremely satisfied with this.

After all, compared to the "utilitarianism" in the mainland, the pressure here is indeed less.

And after returning to Hong Kong, the longer Zhang Yitang stayed, the more he realized how terrifying the influence of Yuan Xin, or Su Yuanshan, was in the country and even in Asia - he did not go to Su Yuanshan's speech at the University of Hong Kong, but went to Niguo Attend a purely mathematical conference.

Let's put it this way, Su Yuanshan's status of "inviting him back" in person has already earned him unexpected respect.

Whenever Zhang Yitang realizes this, although he thinks it should be a gift from a gentleman, he can just accept it calmly. But I still feel that... I haven't made any achievements, and I still feel a little sorry for the treatment given by Su Yuanshan.

"Last time we went to Ni Country, we happened to miss each other." Zhang Yitang walked slowly with his arms folded, and smiled unhurriedly: "But even if I am here, I can only support you and listen to your expertise. , I don’t understand it at all.”

"Haha, actually I didn't teach physics at all, I was just bragging with the students." Su Yuanshan shrugged as he said, "It's nothing more than telling students to stay interested, stay focused, and love science without any pressure."

"Especially in China, in the past... we paid too much attention to results that are visible to the naked eye and can be changed. Hmm... Okay, let's put aside messy things like relationships - but overall, in the past, domestic The attitude towards academics is not to support idle people.”

Hearing this, Zhang Yitang couldn't help but nodded slightly: "Well said!"

Su Yuanshan smiled slightly: "But isn't science promoted and established by those 'idlers' in history? Which of those wise men is not idlers?"

"Especially in pure science, how can it be possible to set a certain task? If you really want to set a task and you can solve everything, then I will give you one billion and you can prove Goldbach's conjecture for me."

Zhang Yitang chuckled.

"You see, these cannot be quantified. We can only rely on scientists who remain interested, remain passionate, and remain focused to overcome it - and before that, they should not have any pressure outside of their teaching work. "

Zhang Yitang nodded with a smile.

But then, he caught a glimpse of Su Yuanshan's eyes looking over.

He suddenly realized... Su Yuanshan's words were probably more than just emotion.

It's also possible that he was telling it to himself.

He thought and recalled his experiences on the way back. Wasn't he an "idler" in Su Yuan Pass?

And in the Academy of Sciences, besides him, there are also people from Russia, Germany, Finland, Japan...many such people.

Of course, in addition, there are also "big boss" level mathematicians.

For example, Laurent Laforgue, who won the Fields Medal, also recently joined the Asian Academy of Sciences and formed a topology theory research team together with FarCore's Pandora Laboratory, dedicated to the development of computer science.

Zhang Yitang lived a very happy life here. In addition to taking a few classes a week, he also had a lot of time to communicate with these outstanding scientists from all over the world. Of course, everyone mostly played by themselves. My own, I just have gatherings occasionally.

As Su Yuanshan said, even though he went from working as a lecturer to now being an "idler" in the Academy of Sciences, he still maintains his love and focus on mathematics.

The two wandered around the small garden for a while, during which they met a mathematician from Ni Country. Su Yuanshan chatted with him for a few words in Japanese. Zhang Yitang couldn't understand Japanese very well, but he was surprised that Su Yuanshan could speak Japanese. So smooth.

"Do you speak Japanese?"

"Well, actually I can speak Korean and a little bit of German... but I usually can't find anyone to speak to, so I almost forget about it." Su Yuanshan breathed out softly, looked up at the sky, and stopped.

"It's getting late, senior brother, I have to go back."

"good."

The couple watched Su Yuanshan leave, Zhang Yitang breathed out softly, with a look of emotion on his face.

"Really, this is genius."

"Hmm? How talented are you?"

"...I have seen so many people, but I have never seen anyone as awesome as Mr. Xiaoshan." Zhang Yitang stretched out his arm to his wife and smiled slightly: "Walking for a while longer?"

"I'm not leaving. I have an appointment with someone to play mahjong tonight and I will go there later."

"good."

Zhang Yitang was also very straightforward - without this chattering magpie, he could just think about the problem quietly by himself.

In addition to love and concentration, sometimes, luck is also needed.

He thought he had prepared all the tools to solve the twin prime number conjecture, but he always felt that it was just a little bit behind...

But he didn't panic at all.

As Su Yuanshan said, pure science cannot carry out quantitative work.

A widely circulated famous saying is: Genius is ninety-nine percent perspiration and one percent inspiration.

But few people know that there is actually another sentence behind it - without that one percent inspiration, all the sweat will be in vain.